By Irene Karanja
Which camps and ideologies will carry the day in 2027? This is one of the questions all voters and political players will be asking themselves in the wake of the passing or Raila Odinga and the mixed results of the just concluded by-elections.
In past elections, political affiliations have been influenced by the manifestos that presidential candidates present to voters. This created a sense of certainty, but the situation is now more fluid.
Workers, businesspeople, manufacturers, the youths, and other stakeholders have different expectations as the clock ticks towards the 2027.
Two seismic events in the recent past are set to reshape these expectations. The first was the Gen Z protest of 2024 which led to a political reset that led President William Ruto to invite former Prime Minister Raila Odinga into the broad-based government.
In turn, this paved the way for the stabilisation of the administration on the one hand and the impeachment of the then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
For a while, there was near certain as to how people would vote in 2027. The two often asked questions were: Would Raila’s camp remain in the broadbased government beyond 2027 or would it break free and face Kenya Kwanza? What about Riggy G? Would he remain as the Mt Kenya kingpin?
There was confusion as to whether retired president Uhuru Kenya would support the broad-based government seeing that some of his key allies have been appointed to the Cabinet. However, he has shifted from being different and, on occasions, has hit out at his successor’s government.
With the death of the ODM leader Raila in November, all political formations have gone back to the drawing board. The issue at hand now is whether ODM will remain in government since most of them claim that Raila asked them to or they will break free as some, notably Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, have boldly expressed.
In recent months, Uhuru also appears to have come back with more authority, probably to prove that he is still the Mt Kenya kingpin and hoping that this time round voters from the region will listen to him.
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Then there is the kingmaker-turned-king, President Ruto himself. He still has a major popularity battle to fight, largely because of the fiscal decisions his administration has made that have left many Kenyans, especially the working class, feeling squeezed. He has also largely “lost” the mountain as Riggy G claims. However, with the UDA win in Mbeere North on November 27, it appears he has been making new inroads that could turn the tide in 2027.
It is also notable that in the recent past, some of the President’s fiercest critics have been turning into his allies, with some saying that “his plan” is bearing fruits. Many are crediting him with for achievements such as the successful hosting of the Chan tournament in Nairobi, construction of Talanta and other stadia, markets, and roads, including the launch of the dualling of the Rironi-Mau Summit highway on November 28, and improvements in the Social Health Insurance scheme.
Still, his work is still cut out for him if he is to be re-elected in 2027. Will his predecessor join him or will he remain behind his preferred candidate, Dr Fred Matiang’i? Will the two political outfits in Mt Kenya — Jubilee and DCP — come together or will they divide the Mt Kenya votes?
Will the united opposition remain united and will Wiper leader Kalonzo be fronted as its torch bearer? How about the party leaders, some of whom have indicated willingness to work with the broad-based government?
However, the most important question between now and 2027 is: Will the Gen Zs register as voters and make a political statement?
One thing for sure is that the death of Raila has dimmed political excitement. Half the voting populace have always sought to make him president while the other half voted to keep him away from the House on the hill.
Either way, he always found his way into the government. With his demise, many are either politically stranded or uninspired. What can re-energise them? That is the million-dollar question.
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