What the numbers say

By NLM Writer

In June, a ‘Nation’ survey found that a first round win in the August presidential election can only be achieved if the winner gets at least 8.63 million votes, assuming a voter turnout of at least 80 per cent. If this month’s turnout climbs to the highs of the 2013 polls at 86 per cent, a winner will have to garner at least 9.511 million. 

Allies and strategists of both DP Ruto and his main challenger Odinga have often boasted of what they said are numbers to hit the required 50 per cent plus one vote mark, with both camps having publicly stated a figure of a win with 60 per cent of the total votes, way above the required margin.

With the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) having closed the voter register at 22,120,458 voters, the race for a first round win is now on, with both camps crunching numbers to determine where they need to whip out voters to cast their ballot and where they need to put more emphasis in the battlegrounds to tilt the race in their favour.

Assuming the Ruto and Odinga perceived strongholds remain intact, the race will be won or lost in the counties identified as battlegrounds.

Beyond their campaigns and manifestos, the winner of the Presidential polls will be determined by a candidate who commands support in regions that have a high concentration of voters. According to the latest figures from the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the Rift Valley counties have a cumulative voter density of over 5.3 million. 

Who, between Raila Odinga and William Ruto, will take this vote? 

Assuming the voter turnout in the region is roughly 80  percent, there will be 4,275,373 active electors in Ruto’s stronghold. In the 2017 presidential polls, the UhuRuto ticket garnered 66 percent of the votes in this region as opposed to Raila’s 27 percent. Barring any last-minute surprises, Dr. Ruto will sweep over 80 percent (3,420,298) of the Rift Valley ballot in 2022. This leaves Raila Odinga with less than 20 percent (855,074) of the region vote to fight for.  

A ‘Nation’ survey in June found that a first round win in the August presidential election can only be achieved if the winner gets at least 8.63 million votes, assuming a voter turnout of at least 80 per cent. If this month’s turnout climbs to the highs of the 2013 polls at 86 per cent, a winner will have to garner at least 9.511 million.

The total number of registered voters stands at about 3.1 million in the Nyanza region – Raila’s stronghold. With a turnout rate of 80 percent, Nyanza will have 2,465, 584 active voters. In 2017, Mr. Odinga got 76 percent of the Nyanza vote against Uhuru’s 13.7 percent. If we give him 80  percent of the regional ballot, he will take home 1,972,467 votes, compared to Ruto’s 20 percent (493,116).

What about the Mount Kenya Region? Considering the region has a cumulative vote of 4.5 million, an 80 percent voter turnout gives us a figure of 3,606,248 to work with. Current trends in the region signify an overwhelming Ruto win. Apart from rejecting Uhuru Kenyatta’s decision to support Raila Odinga, Mt. Kenya voters appear unhappy with the government’s inability to curb the worsening economic situation in the area. Everybody you talk to – vegetable and fruit vendors, farmers, business people, public transport operators and artisans – seems to raise a complaint or two about the Uhuru administration.   

Unfortunately for Raila, the Mount Kenya voters seem to be persuaded, DP Ruto’s Bottom-up economic approach would tackle the region’s problems. In 2017, the Mt. Kenya counties gave Uhuru 94 percent of the votes. In my estimation, DP will comfortably win 75 percent (or 2,704,686) of the Mount Kenya ballot in 2022. Raila Odinga should be happy to take home 20  percent (721, 249,) of the Gikuyu, Meru and Embu (GEMA) vote.

In Western Kenya, Raila’s Popularity has been waning. In 2017, Raila Odinga got 82 percent of the total vote compared to 15 percent for the UhuRuto ticket. Can he repeat the same feat in 2022? No way. As things stand now, Mr. Odinga has already lost the populous county of Bungoma and is gasping for breath in Kakamega.  

Over the past three years, DP Ruto has made significant inroads in the Western region. The Deputy President recently strengthened his rating by embracing two former critics from the region – the Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya Party Chief, Moses Wetang’ula. The trio has formed the Kenya (KK) Kwanza super alliance to face Mr. Odinga. 

Currently, the total number of voters in the Western counties stands at 2.1 million. A voter turnout of 80 percent in the region translates into 1,757,356 active electors. In my estimation, the Western enclave will narrowly favour Raila Odinga with 54 percent (948,972) against Rutos’s 46 percent (808,383).

At the Coast, DP Ruto and Mr. Odinga will be fighting to control over 1.9 million votes. Again, working with the 80 percent criterion, 1,562,022 active coastal voters will be involved in August. In 2017, the UhuRuto ticket got 31.6 percent of the votes compared to Raila’s 66  percent. Considering the amount of work DP Ruto has already done in the region, Raila’s margins will decrease to 51 percent ( about 796,631) to Ruto’s 46  percent( about 718,530).

In the Northern counties (Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Moyale, and Wajir), Ruto will most likely carry the day. The present voter registration status is 866,006. The 80 percent conversation leaves us with 692,804 electors to consider. In 2017, the UhuRuto duo garnered 63 percent of the total vote as opposed to Raila’s 30 percent. In 2022, Ruto is projected to get 65  percent( 450,322) of the votes to 35 percent (303,102) for Raila.

The counties of the Kamba region – Kitui, Machakos and Makueni – have a total vote count of 1,697,003). Out of this number only,1,357,602 – representing 80 percent of the total tally – might be involved. In 2017, Raila got 83 percent of the total vote opposed to 14.3  percent for UhuRuto. Considering the numerous campaign rallies Ruto has already conducted in this area, the Deputy President will get 40  percent (543,040) compared to Raila’s 60 percent (814,561).

Without a doubt, we will witness the most bruising battle between the two candidates in Nairobi. The capital city has 2,505,190 registered voters. If Nairobi records a voter turnout of 80 percent, then only 2,004,152 voters will be active. In 2017, the UhuRuto duo got 48.5 percent of the vote compared to 50.85 for Raila. Will the situation change much in 2022? I don’t think so. It is crucial to note that most Nairobi voters have a rural ancestry. Often, they vote with this variable in mind, and 2022 will not be an exception. 

Nobody can wish away the ethnic factor in Nairobi politics. As it appears now, the Kamba, Luo, and Kisii voters in Nairobi might go with Raila. But the Northern groups, the Mt. Kenya electors, the Luhya and Rift Valley voters will support DP Ruto. Consequently, Ruto will most likely take a narrow lead in Nairobi with 52 percent (1,354,159) compared to Raila’s 48 percent(1,249,992). 

The number of registered voters in Kenya now stands at about 22 million. The 80 percent voter turnout gives us about 18 million active electors. DP Ruto will get 10.4 million voters from the above calculations, representing 57.7  percent of the total against Raila Odinga’s 7.6 million ballots representing 41.9 percent. 

While retaining his grip on both the Rift Valley and the Mount Kenya region, Ruto will significantly improve Western, at the Coast, Northern Kenya, and the Ukambani zone. On his part, Raila Odinga will still control the Nyanza vote but lose significant percentages in Nairobi, at the Coast, Ukambani, and Western.  (