Ruto’s enduring headache

Navigating political and economic challenges is no walk in the park, even by Ruto’s standards

By Silas Apollo

President William Ruto faces a delicate balancing act to deliver on his mandate and that of his government, with new challenges now promising to derail the implementation of some of his policies and agenda. 

Over the last few days, the Head of State has been under intense pressure over some of the key decisions and policy statements that his administration has made, even as he tries to navigate both the political and leadership storms that his administration currently faces.

At the top of the criticism that the President has faced include the recently proposed Finance Bill of 2023, which among other things, seeks to introduce new taxes and levies on earnings by Kenyans, goods, commodities, and other essential products. 

Critics of this proposal, including economists, politicians, employers, business owners, and even ordinary Kenyans, have termed the proposed Bill a burden to the taxpayer, saying that the new taxes risk worsening the already high cost of living. 

The President has also been on the receiving end in the last couple of days over his failure to deliver on some of his campaign promises, adding to the new political and governance issues that the Head of State currently faces.

Those critical of the President, including even some of his supporters, have termed the delay in delivering some of the campaign promises a betrayal.

Part of the promises that the President had hoped to achieve soon after assuming power included a proposal to reduce the cost of basic commodities like maize flour, rein in the high cost of fuel, operationalize contributions towards the National Health Insurance Fund as well as form a commission of inquiry into issues like state capture.

Dr Ruto had also promised not to appoint additional staff to the executive arm of government to reduce the ever-ballooning wage bill, review salaries of police officers, increase allocation to counties, and complete the transfer of functions to the devolved units, among other issues.

During the campaigns, the President said that most of these promises would be fulfilled at least 100 days into office. But close to eight months since taking power, critics of the President, including some of his supporters, have accused the Head of State of going back on these promises.

Critics have instead pointed at the now rising cost of fuel, the recent appointment of 50 chief administrative secretaries, lack of disbursement of funds to counties, the high prices of maize flour and other commodities, and other issues as part of the dilemma that the President faces as he hopes to achieve his vision going forward.

Some experts, like economist Kwame Owino and pollical and governance commentator Alfred Omenya, argue that Dr Ruto could be in a political and leadership storm that may make or break him depending on how well he navigates them. 

Mr Owino, the chief executive officer of the policy think tank group, the Institute of Economic Affairs, argues that the Finance Bill 2023, for instance, will be the first significant test for the President regarding his policy decision on the economy. 

The economist, while responding to the proposals in the Finance Bill 2023, through a memorandum sent by IEA to Parliament, says that if enacted in its current state, it may as well hurt Kenyans more than solve some of the economic issues that the country currently faces.

Mr Owino points at some proposals, such as those recommending an increase in Value Added Tax and the proposed housing fund levy, among others, as those that should be revised before the Bill is passed. 

“According to a study undertaken by National Treasury titled Kenya Comprehensive Public Expenditure Review 2017, the poverty rate increases by more than five percentage points after VAT is accounted for. 

“The use of VAT as a measure to raise revenue should be limited because its imposition would hurt households directly and affecting disproportionately households below the poverty line and those above it. The IEA proposes that by Parliament expanding the scope of VAT would be an inefficient trade-off because it would be hurting families and households directly,” Mr Owino said.

Prof Omenya, on the other hand, argues that the proposals, such as those seeking to deduct money from Kenyans to build affordable housing, do not make any economic sense, adding that such proposals only risk irritating Kenyans struggling to make ends meet. 

“What the government intends to do with the 3% housing levy is not feasible. Building 250,000 houses per year through a government programme is not possible. The more fundamental question is, what problem is the government trying to solve? Who are these homeless Kenyans that the government is trying to house through imposing an additional levy?” Prof Omenya said. 

“You don’t solve the housing problem by building houses, you build basic infrastructure, and people will build houses. All we need from the government is good planning, regulation, infrastructure, and services, to ensure that estates like Pipeline in Nairobi, housing some one million people, built by ordinary Kenyans, are well built,” he added. 

Other critics, like those in the opposition Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance, have, on the other hand, accused the government of over-burdening Kenyans with more levies and taxes, despite decreasing earnings and incomes. 

But the President, in his defense, argued that the proposals in the new Bill to add levies and taxes were to help reduce borrowing by the government, which he argued had depressed revenue over the last couple of months.

The President has also tied his delay in delivering some of his campaign promises to financial constraints, arguing that his government has been pressured to service loans borrowed by the previous administration. 

Kenya, as of December 31, 2022, had borrowed at least Sh9.17b trillion, both from domestic and foreign lenders, according to data from the Office of the Controller of Budget.

Of these funds, about Sh4.70 trillion were loans owed to external lenders, and another Sh4.47 trillion was debt owed to domestic lenders. 

But besides the economy, Dr Ruto faces both a political and a governance challenge from within his government and the opposition.

At the cabinet level, the Kenya Kwanza administration has, on a number of occasions, been forced to fire-fight gaffes, mistakes, and public statements made by some cabinet secretaries, exposing what could as well be Dr Ruto’s underbelly in managing his ministers.  

Just this month, Foreign Affairs cabinet secretary Dr Alfred Mutua was forced to apologise to the public over a statement he made advertising what appeared to be jobs offered to foreigners by the Canadian government, a position the Canadian embassy denied.

Dr Mutua’s principal secretary Dr Korir Sing’oei was also forced to refute a tweet made by Investment and Trade cabinet secretary Moses Kuria calling for military action by other African countries into Sudan.

“The community of nations should militarily invade any country where armies overthrow the government. Appeasement does not pay off,” Mr Kuria had tweeted. 

“Military juntas do not become democrats simply because of the false principle of non-interference. The AU (African Union) can marshal a strong enough army to bomb Khartoum to smithereens,” the CS added before PS Sing’oei dismissed the statement as Mr Kuria’s personal view and not that of the government of Kenya.  

At the political level, Dr Ruto is also facing internal resistance from some of his lieutenants within the United Democratic Alliance over attempts by the government to rein in political figures such as former President Uhuru Kenyatta. 

Some of Dr Ruto’s key allies from the Mt Kenya region like Murang’a woman representative Betty Maina, her Kiambu counterpart Ann wa Muratha, Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, and others, have at least broken ranks with the government in the last few days to condemn the attacks on Mr Kenyatta.

Speaking at different events in the Mt Kenya region, the leaders argued that the sustained attacks on the former Head of State, both in political rallies and the invasion of his Northland farm early this year, were unjustified.

“We cannot continue like this. He (Kenyatta) has his place in our history and society. There are those good deeds he did for us during his tenure, and we must show him respect,” Ms Maina recently said at a political rally in Kimorori in Kenol, Murang’a county. 

Ms Muratha and Mr Kiunjuri, on their part, urged leaders and those in government not to focus on the past, and allow Mr Kenyatta to enjoy his retirement, terming him “a son of Kenya who had served the country diligently during his time as President”. 

The opposition Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance has also been voicing its opposition to the government, and challenging its legitimacy over claims that the presidential elections held last year had been manipulated in favour of Dr Ruto, claims that were dismissed in court. 

The opposition alliance, which suspended its calls for mass protests across the country to allow time for dialogue with the government, has, however, insisted that it will not relent on going back to the streets should its demands not be met. 

Political commentator and lecturer Prof Gitile Naituli of the Multi-Media University says that for Dr Ruto, the challenge for Dr Ruto will be on how best he manages the politics while also focusing on his duty as President with a country to run an economy to revive.

“The President must now realise that he is not just a politician but also a leader who must now rally the country together. How he navigates these roles is what, in my view, will determine whether he succeeds and puts his house in order or let the current political storm sweep him over,” Prof Naituli said.