The Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has emerged as a key test of political influence in Mt Kenya, with President William Ruto, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua backing different candidates ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The election, scheduled for July 16, follows the death of Jubilee MP David Kiaraho.
Although the vote is meant to fill the vacant parliamentary seat, the campaign has attracted national attention because of the high-profile political figures involved.
Nine candidates are competing for the seat, but the contest has largely narrowed to three main political formations: President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Mr Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), and the Jubilee Party associated with Mr Kenyatta.
UDA is supporting Muchina Nyaga, DCP has nominated Douglas Kamau Ngotho, while Jubilee is backing Wilson Kigwa.
For President Ruto, the by-election provides an opportunity to assess his political standing in Mt Kenya after divisions emerged following the impeachment of Mr Gachagua in 2024.
President Ruto received nearly 87 per cent of votes in the Mt Kenya region during the 2022 General Election. The outcome of the Ol Kalou race will offer an early indication of how his support in the region has evolved since then.
Political analyst John Okumu said the results would shape political arguments ahead of the next General Election.
“If the President’s candidate wins while Mr Gachagua and Mr Kenyatta emerge weakened, there will be serious questions about whether the opposition camps can continue pursuing separate political strategies in Mt Kenya,” Mr Okumu said.
The contest has also placed Deputy President Kithure Kindiki under focus as he seeks to establish himself as President Ruto’s key mobiliser in the region.
However, Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri has taken a leading role in coordinating UDA campaigns. Mr Kiunjuri said the party had gained ground since campaigns started.
“When we started this campaign our candidate was polling at about nine per cent. Every percentage point we have gained reflects the work our teams have done on the ground,” he said.
Mr Gachagua is using the by-election as the first major electoral test for his DCP party since leaving government. A victory would strengthen his influence in Mt Kenya and boost his bargaining power ahead of 2027.
Mr Kenyatta is also seeking to maintain political relevance through Jubilee candidate Wilson Kigwa, who is supported by the former president and former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.
Political commentator Herman Manyora said the race had become more than a parliamentary contest.
“Every Mt Kenya leader hoping to remain politically relevant understands that Ol Kalou has become a political examination,” he said.
The final results will provide an early indication of how the competing political camps are performing in Mt Kenya as parties prepare for the 2027 General Election.
– By Esther Keshe
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