The February announcement by ODM leader Raila Odinga that he is interested in the position of chairperson of the African Union Commission has opened up debate on what a successful run would mean, especially for local and regional politics.
Mr Odinga is seeking to succeed the outgoing AU Commission chairman, Mr Moussa Faki Mahamat, and his announcement has ignited talk over possible political realignments at the national stage, not to mention succession politics within his party, ODM, and the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, which also has Mr Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Ms Martha Karua (Narc-Kenya) as co-principals and retired President Uhuru Kenyatta as de jure leader.
If elected, the ODM leader will be ineligible to engage in national politics, a condition that the AU imposes on the holder of the office of the chairman of the commission. This means his participation in local or regional politics will be curtailed, a move that could possibly lock him out of political discussions and engagements within his party ODM and Azimio as the clock ticks towards the 2027 General Election.
According to AU regulations, the position of commission chairman is a neutral seat since the office holder is expected to, among other things, play key roles in engagements such as elections monitoring, conflict management, and diplomatic engagements in Africa and beyond.
Aside from limited engagement in politics, a candidate for the position requires the backing of his country and its government to contest for the seat, a decision that some pundits believe may be seen as a sign, in Mr Odinga’s case, of a truce between him and President William Ruto, who defeated him in the 2022 presidential election.
Already, Mr Odinga has received the backing of some of President Ruto’s key allies such as the National Assembly Leader of Majority Kimani Ichung’wa, Senate Majority Whip Boni Khalwale, Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, as well as Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei.
Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs CS Musalia Mudavadi in February told an AU meeting that the East African Community will be fronting a candidate for the AU seat that has in the past been held by candidates from West Africa (Amara Essy of Senegal), West Africa (Alpha Konare of Mali), Central Africa (Jean Ping of Gabon), Southern Africa (Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma of South Africa), and now Mr Faki of Chad in Central Africa.
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Mr Faki trounced Kenya’s Amina Mohammed when he was elected in March 2017, meaning that of all the regional blocs in Africa, East Africa, the Horn of Africa, and Northern Africa are the only regions that have so far not produced a successful candidate. The Chairperson of the African Union Commission is the Chief Executive Officer, legal representative of the AU. He is also the Commission’s Chief Accounting Officer. The Chairperson of the Commission is elected by the Assembly for a four-year term, renewable once.
While announcing that Kenya would back Mr Odinga’s candidature, Mr Mudavadi said: “We shall be putting forward a substantial case as East Africa through key consultations amongst the East African member states when we settle on our candidate. South, Central, and West Africa have had a share in serving as chair at various times since 2002. East and North Africa are yet to have that opportunity,” Mudavadi told the AU’s Executive Council during the 44th Ordinary Session of the Foreign Affairs Ministers.
In essence, therefore, the battle of who becomes the next Commission Chairperson could be a battle between East and Northern Africa. “I think that going by the statements issued by various government officials, it is only a matter of time before President Ruto and Raila Odinga work together for the AU seat. And that would mean a handshake between the two leaders,” a political commentator, Mr Mark Bichachi, told The Nairobi Law Monthly in a February interview.
“Raila Odinga exiting the local political scene will mean that President William Ruto will now have a free hand in implementing most of his policies and agenda. That has the potential of changing the political discourse in the country.”
Should Mr Odinga win the AU seat, this is likely to create a leadership vacuum in ODM, his primary party, and the Opposition coalition, Azimio, of which ODM is a key member. Already, there is jostling to fill the vacuum with Mr Musyoka signalling that Azimio would soldier on, ostensibly under his leadership, without Mr Odinga, and with Ms Karua already showing interest in seeking the presidency in 2027.
Within ODM, talks over the 2027 succession have already gathered steam after former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho declared his intention to seek the party’s presidential ticket. And in Azimio, debate on who should be the coalition’s presidential candidate has also kicked off.
University lecturer Gitile Naituli told The Nairobi Law Monthly that by taking up the AU Commission Chairperson’s position, Mr Odinga’s role in local politics may be limited. This, he opined, could lead to possible rivalries and even realignments within both ODM and Azimio.
“The exit of Odinga from the local politics is likely to create some vacuum. What this means is that the internal rivalries that we have been witnessing within Azimio and ODM may intensify going forward,” Prof Naituli of the Multimedia University said. “The challenge for Mr Odinga would be on how to balance all these interests, including those of his supporters.”
Some of Mr Odinga’s supporters, like ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, believe an Odinga victory at the AU would have little impact on the Opposition politics.
“He has held continental positions before, including at the AU. We did not see any difference in his politics or the Opposition’s politics. As a party, we wish him well,” said Mr Sifuna, also the Nairobi Senator.
Ms Wanga, on the other hand, argued that Mr Odinga’s exit would not create a vacuum in the party.
“Raila is like an institution and does not need to hold a formal position in a party to get support and following. There are those imagining that this is a way of pushing him out of politics. They don’t know that Raila is a force to reckon with,” Ms Wanga said.
This article was first published in the March 2024 issue of Nairobi Law Monthly.
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