Why Ruto was bound to stumble in Kibra

By David Wanjala

The dust has settled in Nairobi’s Kibra Constituency after the by-election occasioned by the untimely demise of its member of Parliament, Ken Okoth. Many lessons will, however, be drawn from the explosive campaigns that preceded the voting especially heading into the looming 2020 General Election and for many years to come.

To understand the intrigues that ensued from the time IEBC declared the seat vacant through to the campaigns, voting and announcement of results, three key players come to mind: Deputy President William Ruto – the sponsor; Macdonald Mariga, the prop; and former Senator for Kakamega Dr Bonnie Khalwale, the super-agent.

Kibra Constituency has a history in Kenya’s post-independence politics. It has a special place in the book of the country’s Opposition politics. Post the Jomo Kenyatta era, especially in the struggle for second liberation against the independence party, Kenya African National Union (Kanu)’s dictatorial regime, Kibra, then under the larger Lang’ata Constituency adopted Raila Amollo Odinga, who had ably taken over from his father, the doyen of Opposition politics, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. 

From 1992, at a time President Moi had heightened the crackdown on the dissidents of his regime through 2002 when curtains finally folded on the despondent Kanu government through a peaceful but hard-earned regime change, to 2013 after the newly promulgated Constitution barred presidential contenders from vying for parliamentary seats, Odinga was the MP for the constituency. Throughout the entire time, the people of Kibra, given the role of their MP in the struggle for multiparty democracy and change of regime, bore the brunt of state brutality.

The Moi regime did not yield to any constitutional change that entrenched rule of law and human rights without a fight, and it came with untold torture. The street battles that characterised this struggle were sustained by the masses from many quotas of the sprawling City of Nairobi, but largely by the people of Kibra. Reverend Timothy Njoya, Senator for Siaya James Orengo, Retired President Mwai Kibaki, Meru County Governor Kiraitu Murungi and his Makueni Counterpart Prof Kivutha Kibwana and many other second liberation heroes that are hardly mentioned can bear you witness of the doomsday in the trenches battling with Moi’s General Service Unit (GSU) killer squads in whose knowledge concepts of rule of law, human rights, democracy existed not. They fought along and were shielded by the masses from slums of Kibra, Mathare, Huruma, Kariobangi from teargas, water cannons, rubber and sometimes live bullets.

To bring it closer home, when in 2007 the state forced chair of the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), Samuel Kivuitu, now late, to announce unverified election results and declare Kibaki presidential winner and swear him in in a hastily convened dusk ceremony at State House, the country imploded. Throughout the power-sharing negotiations by the African eminent personalities under the able stewardship of retired UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, two places were completely cordoned off; Uhuru Park, so the agitated masses, and probably factions of the armed forces, do not access it to swear Raila Odinga in as the fourth President of the Republic of Kenya; and Kibra, so that the people do not troop out to Uhuru Park. It always starts in Kibra. Had they been left to get out, Mathere, Huruma, Kariobangi, Dandora and many others would follow. Eventually, the middle class would join in and the fallacy of the Kibaki’s second presidential term would collapse.

Kibra Constituency is not a Luo nation, so to speak. It is not a homogeneous body politic. It is a cosmopolitan district, predominantly occupied by the Nubians and the tribes of Western Kenya, but well represented by almost every of the 42 plus tribes of motherland. The constituency identifies with the former Prime Minister not by coincidence, coercion or fraud but out of many years of passionate and steadfast collaboration in many activities that have yielded immensely for this country in terms of democracy, specifically, in human rights and rule of law, and through representation. Calling the Constituency Baba’s bedroom, therefore, was not farfetched.

Kibra identifies with Raila out of many years of passionate and steadfast collaboration in many activities that have yielded immensely for this country in terms of democracy, specifically, in human rights and rule of law and representation.

William Ruto

The Deputy President, who is also an eminent leader of the ruling party, Jubilee, had every right, constitutional in fact, to organise his formation and take a shot at the seat that had fallen vacant in Kibra. He went into it fully aware of the historical facts afore outlined. That he put up a formidable campaign, reducing the battle into a two-man race between ODM’s Imran Okoth, the late Ken Okoth’s brother and former international soccer player, Macdonald Mariga cannot be gainsaid.

However, going by what is known about Kibra and Raila Odinga and his party ODM, what were the real intentions of the DP in plunging himself neck-deep in Kibra? Was Ruto really convinced that he would take the challenge at Odinga’s doorstep and beat him at it? If so, why the glaring blunders in strategy?

Ruto mis-stepped right from when he made the decision to go for it. It was obvious, and he made no effort to disguise the fact that a faction of his party was not in on it with him. It looked like President Kenyatta, with the now popular (or is it infamous?) handshake with Odinga and the impending Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report, was not keen on antagonising his long-time foe turned friend, having both commenced the process and looking forward to receiving its tidings. He gave it a wide berth. 

Not just that, majority of the adherents of the President’s faction in the Jubilee Party led by nominated MP Maina Kamanda was, in a rare show of Unity with ODM, to conspicuously turn up on Imran Okoth’s campaign trails in Kibra. Some of these people are known to be Uhuru Kenyatta’s confidants and the perception drawn was that they were doing the bidding of the President. This really undermined Ruto’s last minute attempts to portray the President as being in with him. 

The elephant in the room however, was Ruto’s choice of candidate for the race. Mariga does not hail from the constituency. He is an ‘outsider’. While that is not illegal, it is illogical and, ultimately, arrogant. It was bound to backfire. Typically, however, the DP saw nothing wrong with it and pushed on, likely disregarding wise, but suppressed counsel from within his circles. How were the people of Kibra, smarting from the loss of their MP and one of the best performing, to take this? He had no touch with the ground. He was imposed. Worse still, Mariga had never in his life registered as a voter. He had never participated in the universal suffrage. He registered outside the constituency only a few days after the Kibra seat was declared vacant. He could not and did not vote for himself in the elections.

Then came the insensitive display of the financial might. Could it have been the one that informed the inflated confidence and sense of entitlement in team Mariga? Did they, God forbid, believe that they could ride on the poverty levels in the constituency and buy their way? Displaying and dishing out hard cash, as was seen in Kibra and as has become the norm with the DP, would in the long run work against him. Contrary to the rhetoric, it is never about minding others. It is a statement of a collapsed economy – a topic for another day.

The DP, finally, missed out on a golden opportunity to showcase his abilities of being a statesman. It took him over two days after IEBC had declared Imran the winner to concede his candidate’s lose, and congratulate the winner. When he finally did on his twitter handle, it was in a long rant where a lot of attention was focused on originating and entrenching a narrative that the loss was occasioned by the violence visited on their would be voters, scaring them away from participating in the exercise. 

The DP is a national leader. He is the second in command in the republic and can become President in the event of any misfortune upon the president. Being Deputy President, he serves all, both those who support him and those that do not. He forms the Executive and more so, the Presidency. Imran Okoth, having been elected MP for Kibra, will serve with and under him notwithstanding the principle of separation of powers. A hearty congratulatory remark from the DP would have gone a long way to portray him as the national leader he should be. Instead, he chose to originate a narrative of violence that he has clung on to date, which unfortunately, resonates with his base.

Macdonald Mariga

Kenya is a land of great sportsmen and women. Our world dominance in long distance running, continental supremacy in female volleyball and our impressive sojourns in world rugby competitions is enviable in the East African region. Joe Kadenge, J.J. Masiga, Mohamed Abbas, Wilberforce Mulamba among many others are household giants in soccer, but there has never been any footballer that earned Kenya a spot in world soccer like Macdonald Mariga. The Kenyan international is the first local player to not only play in but also win the Champions League with Italian club Internazionale under tactician Jose Mourinho. He brushed shoulders with the who’s who in international soccer when he was at his prime. He missed out on the English Football where Manchester City had salivated for his services when the UK foreign authorities denied him a work permit.

Mariga’s stature is beyond the petty, primitive, gluttonous politics of our times. He is a national hero whose admiration transcends all tribes, regions and politics. If I were Mariga I would choose and endeavour to serve Kenya on a more meaningful platform, preferably in sports.

The right to seek elective office is indeed inherent and so Mariga chose to exercise his. No one should have a problem with that. It is his style of doing it that has dumbfounded many. 

Mariga did not need patronage. He did not need to be propped up. If there ever was anyone who could defy party affiliation and win on his own in a political contest, it is Macdonald Mariga. Sports is universal and a darling of many if not all. He is an idol of the Kenyan youth who make the majority of the voting demography begging the question, was it really the original idea of Macdonald Mariga to wake up one morning after Ken Okoth’s death and decide that he deserves and indeed should vie in Kibra to replace him, without having registered and ever voting before?

Mariga hails from Busia County, Funyula Constituency. Noah Wanyama, his father is a former Kenya international having captained AFC Leopards and played for Harambee stars in the 1970s. Busia County at large is a breeding ground for soccer players. Occasionally, it has produced sensational stars. J.J. Masiga, the former AFC Leopard’s revered striker and Kenya international of the 80s hails from Funyula. So does Crispin Oduor of the defunct Scarlet FC of Lanet Barracks Nakuru and many others.

The Constituency runs a legendary soccer league that starts in June and climaxes in December in a tournament that culminates in a final on the boxing day of every year where visiting teams are invited from across the border in Uganda and sometimes from as far as Mombasa. This would be the best target for Mariga. Over the years, Mariga would have started a Foundation here for his father if not for himself, targeting to sponsor the local league and lift it to contemporary standards. It would have been easy for him to tap a talent or two every year and shepherd them into lucrative foreign leagues where, I believe, he has friends. It needed not be the top tier. 

He would have no competitor in Funyula were he to choose to vie there. When you give back to society, society appreciates. He can still replicate that in any constituency of his choice in Nairobi, at least for five years, and it would be his for the taking.

This is not far-fetched. His former national captain, Musa Otieno runs the Musa Otieno Foundation in Jericho, which he started after five years of professional football for Santos FC of Cape Town South Africa. He is changing young lives in that part of Nairobi and you can tell he appreciates where he came from, by giving back. He is serving Kenya on a higher pedestal than politics but were he to seek an elective position there, he would start ahead of all his competitors. He won’t need patronage from any quarters.

DP Ruto may have wanted to use the by election to test waters moving into 2022. He, out of the poor strategy, only managed to isolate himself. Whether he can pull himself back together is a matter best left to time.

Forging ahead

If Mariga has plunged into the murky waters of Kenyan politics for the long haul, he must shed political baggage going forward. He does not need Ruto. He does not need Jubilee. He is way above the politics of ‘us vs them’ that he has since been baptized into.

He only needs to give back, a little, to society. Perhaps start a fully sponsored tournament here, pull together resources to revamp and refurbish an estate playground there. He could as well start by agitating for reclamation of grabbed playgrounds in the estates. He could pick lessons from his contemporaries in professional football; Cameroon’s Samuel Eto’o, Ivory Coast’s Didier Drogba and many others. Many constituencies in Nairobi would be queuing to adopt Mariga and sooner than later, political parties would start coming to him and not the other way round. 

It was only a false start. Mariga should sharpen his skills for a better shot.

Dr Bonnie Khalwale

What was the medical doctor in this for? Had he succeeded in his bid to topple Wycliff Oparanya as CEO of Kakamega County or retained his position at the Senate, would he have invested himself in this by election to the extent we saw? Engaging Khalwale in a face-to-face conversation reveals a very sharp mind. That he could immerse himself in it as an agent to the extent to which we saw him on National TV is bewildering. 

Khalwale represents a cabal of leaders at the disposal and mercy of the Deputy President. They were made to believe, and believe they did, that nothing would stop their candidate from winning.  The others include MP for Mumias East Benjamin Washiali, MP for Malindi Aisha Jumwa, MP for Kimili Didmas Barasa and Ndindi Nyoro of Kiharu, Murang’a among many others. Being yes people for whatever crumbs fall their way, they are a baggage to DP Ruto’s political ambitions. They cannot speak truth to power and could be misrepresenting facts from reality to the DP.  

DP Ruto may have wanted to use the by election to test waters moving into 2022. He, however, out of the poor strategy, only managed to isolate himself. Whether he can pull himself back together to head into the homestretch stronger, only time will tell.