Kenya is bracing for wetter-than-normal short rains, with the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) warning of heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides in several parts of the country.
KMSA Acting Head Edward Muriuki said rain has already started in parts of 24 counties in the Coast, western Kenya and the Rift Valley, and will spread progressively to other parts of the country in the coming days. Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to be the last to record the onset of the short rains season in the third or fourth week of October.
The counties that are already experiencing the rains include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok. Also affected are the coastal counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi, in addition to the Tana Delta.
Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo in the north-eastern part of the country are expected to experience the start of the short rains season in the last week of October.
Most of central Kenya and Ukambani, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni, are also expected to experience the rains in the next week or the week after next.
Other areas that will be affected include Kajiado, Taita Taveta and the interior parts of Tana River County.
Muriuki told farmers and residents to seek detailed weekly and monthly forecasts provided by their local meteorological offices since the onset of the short rains season is likely to vary from one region to another.
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KMSA also predicted above-normal rainfall in some parts of the Coast and north-eastern Kenya, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, and in parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir. Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua, and parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok counties are also expected to experience higher-than-normal rainfall.
The October to December rains are expected to be influenced by a strengthening El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Mr Muriuki cautioned against treating El Niño as the sole determinant of rainfall.
“Rainfall is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole,” he said.
The above-normal rainfall is expected to provide good amounts of moisture to most of Kenya’s croplands, ease land preparation and planting activities, promote regeneration of pastures and provide good watering conditions for livestock.
However, the authority warned that the rains could lead to waterlogging and the spread of crop diseases, as well as cause challenges in farming activities. Flooding and landslides are also likely to occur, especially in lower-altitude areas and around rivers. Farmers and residents should take the warning of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority seriously.
The rains are expected to persist until January in most of central, western and eastern Kenya, while Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are likely to record the end of the short rains season in the first or second week of December. Turkana and Samburu are expected to experience poor to fair rainfall despite the overall wetter-than-normal conditions.
The forecast calls for preparation for a wet season involving long periods of rain with occasional storms in most parts of Kenya.
– By John Murunga
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