Startups, nonprofits race to unlock Africa’s agricultural potential as millions face food crisis and droughts

By NLM Writer

In Sub-Saharan Africa, 85% of the population couldn’t afford an energy- and nutrient-sufficient diet. In the 12 most afflicted countries, World Bank data shows 9 out of 10 people struggle to afford a nutritious meal.

Climate change, if unchecked, is expected to make food even more unaffordable. The economic shocks from increasing temperatures, water stress and continued droughts will push tens of millions of Africans into extreme poverty over the next decade.

In the Horn of Africa, extended droughts threaten many with famine as food insecurity has reached emergency levels or worse, according to famine early warning system FEWS NET. Climate change is parching the land, pushing millions of Africans to the brink of food crisis

The Horn of Africa entered its sixth consecutive failed rainy season since 2020 — meaning the area has had little to no rainfall during its typically wet season. The current rainy season, from March through May, is again likely to have below-normal rainfall. The extended drought, exacerbated by climate change, killed an estimated 43,000 people in 2022, and has affected farmers’ ability to manage crops and livestock. Extreme heat, dryness threaten food supply chain. 

East Africa is not only drying out and getting warmer, the region is also warming faster than the global average. Forecasts by climate risk modeler Moody’s RMS show Africa to be one of the highest risk regions worldwide for heat stress by the year 2040 — extreme temperatures will threaten the food supply chain, food production and development, and the health of outdoor workers. 

RMS projections indicate that large swathes of the continent’s population will see a rise in both the frequency and severity of hot days, as well as average temperatures unlike any previously experienced.

Water supply is also at risk. Water scarcity will threaten communities, with agriculture being one of the most heavily affected sectors. Water shortages and droughts will also have knock-on effects to economies, while banks could see concentrations of company defaults in particular geographic areas around the world, according to RMS.

Overcome steep hurdles 

Numerous actors — from African startups to global humanitarian organizations — are responding to the continent’s food challenges. For Sub-Saharan Africa to meet its food needs as climate change persists, the region must first overcome some basic hurdles. Population pressures will complicate the response to climate change. 

The region will have some of the planet’s fastest population growth, doubling by 2050, according to Kenya Cabinet Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u and Professor of Economics at the African Economic Research Consortium Théophile T. Azomahou. “The rise in population is expected to aggravate the challenge of climate change through pressure on natural resources, leading to environmental degradation, worsening food insecurity, and higher regional poverty levels,” write Ndung’u and Azomahou for the Brookings Institute.

Small legacy farms, lagging infrastructure hamper productivity

Most of Africa’s infrastructure, including energy, transportation and water, lags that found in advanced economies. Electricity is not universally available. In 2017, less than half of households in Sub-Saharan Africa had power. Many countries are also behind in mobile infrastructure, which can provide farmers access to weather information, business partners and markets. Digital technologies, however, are also expensive, and often out of reach to farmers.

There are more than 600 million farms worldwide — most of which are small and family-operated. About one-tenth of them are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Inefficiencies, such as lack of irrigation and uncertain land tenure, typically arise from small-scale farming, which has limited production gains compared to other parts of the world.

Africa’s farms are tiny compared to those around the world. Sub-Saharan Africa’s farms average 1.6 hectares — slightly larger than two professional soccer pitches. That compares to an average 21 hectares in high-income European countries. While Central Asia and most EU countries average about 42 hectares. Other high-income countries’ farms average 78 hectares in size. The United States has some of the world’s largest farms, at an average
176 hectares.

A result of Africa’s small farm sizes is that crop yields on the continent remain low compared with the rest of the world. Output of key cereals has grown by less than one metric ton per hectare since 1965, whereas other regions — guided by the mid-20th century “Green Revolution” that introduced fertilizers, pesticides, high-yield crops and increased farm sizes — have witnessed gains of about three metric tons per hectare.

Cereal yields, in metric tons per hectare

Inadequate crop yields, greater food demand pose economic risks. Global demand for agricultural commodities is projected by the OECD to grow 1.1% per year through 2031. Food insecurity — driven by demand, geopolitical disruption and physical climate risks — will continue to be a source of economic risk for emerging market countries, including those in Africa, reports Moody’s Investors Service. Africa is particularly vulnerable to geopolitical risks because it is a net importer of foods.

Most new food demand will come from low and middle-income countries, particularly for cereals needed in Sub-Saharan, eastern and northern African countries, with Africa’s rapid projected population growth and low farm productivity being two main factors behind the rise in demand.

The response by African governments to alleviate food insecurity has been inadequate, says Dr B.M. Prasanna, director of International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre’s Global Maize Program. “Eastern and Southern Africa are climate hotspots, with more than $45 billion in agriculture at risk. Maize, a staple covering up to 75% of cropland in parts of the region, is projected to face declines of 15% due to climate impacts,” he says.

“Governments in Africa are inadequately investing in agricultural R&D and focused programs to achieve sustainable development goals,” he continues. “Public expenditure in agriculture is far below the 10% target, ranging from a low 0.15% in Guinea-Bissau to 3.61% in Malawi. This prevents countries from adapting to climate change shocks.”

Innovative approaches are boosting crop yields, fighting famine and battling import dependence. Even amid the challenges, the picture in wider Sub-Saharan Africa is multifaceted. A spectrum of groups, ranging from governments and big business to venerable nonprofits and determined startups, are working to combat food insecurity with approaches that move beyond immediate food aid: empowering rural agriculture, boosting farm yields, and enhancing food production and nutrition.

Food fortification has boosted health in developed world for decades

Moody’s partner TechnoServe, a nonprofit that helps people lift themselves out of poverty by harnessing the power of the private sector, empowers smallholder farmers and entrepreneurs to gain the skills, connections, and confidence needed to improve their incomes. Founded in 1968, the organization operates in almost 30 countries and has 1,800 staff on the ground across the developing world.

From Benin to Botswana, TechnoServe helps farmers, agribusinesses and entrepreneurs raise production levels, and connects them with lucrative markets while creating jobs in rural areas in countries like Ethiopia, where 85% of total jobs are still in agriculture, and in Kenya, where 35% live on less than a dollar a day and food insecurity looms due to drought.

TechnoServe works with food processors as linchpins in the food system – driving demand and incomes for smallholder farmers, creating jobs, and increasing the availability of affordable, nutritious food. Food insecurity is one of the most pressing issues in communities where TechnoServe works, and the impact of climate change, conflict, and inflation threaten to make it worse. It is estimated that globally more than two billion people experience “hidden hunger” — in Nigeria, for example, 37% of children under five experience stunting due to vitamin A and iron-deficiency anaemia.

Staple food products in many regions of the developed world have been fortified for decades, which has dramatically improved health outcomes,” he says. “Large-Scale Food Fortification (LSFF) has proven to be one of the most cost-effective measures you can take to improve the nutrition of any country, particularly in food insecure countries where populations are most vulnerable.

Schofield explains that although an increasing number of countries have instituted food fortification standards, compliance is often low. “TechnoServe works directly with food processors to strengthen the business case for fortification and maximize the return on their investments,” he says. “Compliance and enforcement are often low as a result of industry unwillingness to sustainably adopt the practice or a weak enabling environment.”

In Africa, food fortification reached 376 million people, or 29% of the population in 2018. By 2022, that number increased to 547 million, nearly 40% of the continent’s population.

Drought-resistant seeds are transforming crop yields African farmers adapt and adopt the Green Revolution

In Sub-Saharan Africa, farmers are overcoming their preference for traditional seeds and adopting drought-resistant varieties, a trend Dr Prasanna from the Global Maize Program, housed at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CGIAR/CIMMYT), calls one of the “few bright stories” in the region. By last year, some 150,000 metric tons of drought-resistant maize seeds were being sold in eastern and southern Africa.

The Centre’s work heralded the 1960s Green Revolution movement, saving people from famine by introducing high-yield, disease-resistant rice and wheat across the developing world. The Green Revolution came late to Africa, but CIMMYT’s drought-tolerant maize program has developed over 150 new maize varieties that withstand drought, commercializing them across Sub-Saharan Africa. Each variety is adapted to grow in specific regions of the continent.

Africa’s smallholder farmers often lack funds to buy seeds and fertilizer

Web platforms and development organizations are linking farmers to financing.

Just a few years ago, Kavita Ndolo, 31, couldn’t have imagined he’d be back on his family’s 15-acre farm in the Kenyan countryside, about 60 kilometers from the capital Nairobi.

“The more I worked in engineering, the more I wanted to provide water to my community, because I grew up without water,” the MBA holder explains to Moody’s. Employed at the time as a project manager for a high-end Nairobi real estate developer, Ndolo returned to his ancestral Kithekani Farms in 2020 to create a dam for his village. “The dam gave me the opportunity to leave corporate life and return to farming.”

“When I relocated, they were still using the same [farming] methods as in ancient times,” he recalls. “So, I wrote a business plan and figured out what crops don’t work anymore because of failed rainy seasons.”

Ndolo introduced drought resistant crops and looked for ways to ease dependence on increasingly erratic rains. “You can’t grow half the year, so I had to design an irrigation system to pump water by solar power, because we’re not connected to the grid.”

Ndolo put his plan into practice with funding he accessed through startup Farmz2U, a company that links smallholder farmers with lenders via the Internet. Farmz2U’s business development manager John Gichiru says one of the chief challenges African farmers face is raising sufficient capital to take the next step toward commercializing their farms. Funding allows farmers like Ndolo to buy the necessary building blocks — seeds, pesticides and fertilizer.

More recently, even cereal crops have failed, leading Ndolo to shift his strategy. “Cereal crops put my parents through school, but when I tried them, we failed, so we phased them out.” At that point, even the dam had dried up.

“We converted land to avocados, which are more drought resistant,” he says. “The fruit trees survived, and rains seem to be coming, so we are back in business. We’ll make a profit this year, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the last one and a half years. Still, we’ve not given up and sold the land, which is happening to a lot of people.”

Ndolo says Africa is seeing a movement of young people back to the land. “A lot of it is about the cost of living and lack of opportunity in the cities, so at the end of the day people have to return home,” he explains.

“You’re not the coolest guy in the room as a farmer, but you don’t have to be working in the field, you can work on the supply chain, marketing, web design or water engineering side of farming.” – Kavita Ndolo

Ndolo sees a win-win for both young Africans and the continent’s smallholder farms. “When we project an apocalyptic future, the lack of food is a hallmark,” he notes. “To fight climate change, we need the younger generation to get into farming, because we need a tech-savvy population able to develop solutions. We need more people to think smarter and to change their way of thinking. Not everyone can move to the city.”

Another agricultural organization, One Acre Fund, which works with smallholders in nine African countries. One Acre Fund supplies smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa with asset-based financing and agriculture training services to reduce hunger and poverty. Tied to this, the organization actively invests in exploring and scaling promising “revenue engines” – impact channels that can also generate substantial earned revenue. These include a rural retail program – physical storefronts across agriculturally productive regions to give farmers enhanced, year-old access to farming inputs and products. 

Additionally, One Acre Fund works to alleviate market inefficiencies by connecting farmers to local and international buyers, processors, and exporters – resulting in larger client transactions and much higher income margins. Lastly, the organization also works to equip smallholders for greater climate resilience is both an operational imperative and an issue of climate justice. By supporting farm-level adaptation and mitigation, One Acre Fund enables farmers to sustainably increase their income by reinvesting in their land and local environment.

Amid challenges, progress

Africa is currently a net importer of foods and susceptible to supply disruptions sparked by geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, which caused worldwide grain shortages and food price increases. The added challenges from climate change — in the form of shifting weather patterns leading to limited rainfall and droughts — and from rising population pressures, undeveloped human capital and weak infrastructure, are steep and could lead to further migration if left unchecked.

The continent’s untapped potential lies in the hands of its governments, private sector and its people. While productivity on existing farms remains low, Africa possesses 60% of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land. Supporting smallholder farms through investment and innovation will reduce the continent’s dependence on imported foods while defining its future food sustainability.

A positive signal is that investment in the African agri-food technology sector has been steadily growing. In 2022, Africa bucked worldwide headwinds as startup funding grew by 22%. Many other regions saw a decrease in invested capital. Some of the largest investments were in marketplaces that connect African farmers with new markets, bioengineering, mechanization and farming.

“There is huge scope for improvement,” concludes Dr Prasanna. “Now is the time for strong investment, and focused work through multi-institutional programs. Research has transformative power. Research needs to support policy making. Now more than ever we need new solutions to the challenges that smallholders in Africa face.” (