BY TIMAN MNYIKA
Will the unity in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) hold and survive the 2017 presidential race? This is the question many watchers of the opposition political scene are asking as the 2017 General Election approaches.
In 2013, two of the so-called principals in Cord – Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper and Moses Masika Wetang’ula of Ford Kenya – gave up their presidential ambitions in order to support ODM’s Raila Odinga.
In the deal that brought them together, Kalonzo agreed to become Deputy President and Wetang’ula the Senate Majority Leader should their coalition win the elections. However, Cord lost the poll at the ballot box and the subsequent challenge in the Supreme Court, meaning only Wetang’ula, who won the Bungoma Senate seat, assumed the lower office of Minority Leader in the Senate.
The consequences of this loss are now haunting the coalition. Two of its main parties – ODM and Wiper – are almost in a self-destruct mode with internal rows threatening to tear them apart.
As 2017 approaches, their rival Jubilee, being in power, does not have the headache of choosing a presidential candidate and running mate. Thus they can try to muddy the waters in their rival’s camp.
Indeed, it is not beyond Jubilee to constantly keep its rivals in Cord busy fighting fires by inciting rebellion. It is thus not surprising that we have been hearing noises of Jubilee ‘’moles’’ in Cord in recent weeks every time the touchy issue of ODM leadership and who should be the 2017 opposition coalition’s torch bearer comes up.
Yet Raila must face the leadership issue in his party head on.
He is in a gigantic dilemma. He is under pressure to hold elections and essentially manage his succession yet he seems to still want to run for the presidency one more time and is convinced that Jubilee is supporting those rebelling against him.
“The party’s future and its leadership is going to be complicated and overshadowed by the pressure for generational change,’’ Dr Amukoa Anangwe, a political scientist and party member told a local daily newspaper.
Whatever happens in ODM will have a bearing on Cord and its presidential fortunes in 2017.
The coalition is led by a collegiate of Raila, Kalonzo and Wetang’ula. On paper, all the three are in the running for the 2017 ticket. They are all making plans for the 2017 contest, hoping to be the ones to be picked through whatever method the coalition will chose.
However, behind the scenes, things are a little bit dicey.
The turmoil in ODM may put paid to efforts by Cord to stay together.
Since the botched February elections, ODM has not known peace and Raila has been under constant pressure to give way to new leadership. At the time of the failed elections, it was the Ababu Namwamba-Hassan Joho alliance that was giving Raila all the problems.
However, since then, another faction led by wealthy Nairobi governor Evans Kidero, who also has 2017 presidential ambitions, has come up. Indeed, many think that Kidero is Raila’s real challenger for the ODM leadership and that he has been secretly funding the likes of Namwamba and other youthful MPs in their push for change in the party.
Last month, a daily newspaper reported that a faction of the Luo Council of Elders had chosen a successor of Raila among the Luo nation. “He is a shrewed politician and he fits the bill,’’ Opiyo Otondi, the chair of a faction of the elders council said adding that the candidate will be named at an opportune time.
“We have narrowed down to an individual and have asked him to remain humble. We have asked him not to exalt himself until the time comes to declare him our leader,’’ he was quoted as saying.
Only days later, Mr Otondi was “ousted’’ from his position and replaced by one Otudo Oyuga for “disrespecting’’ Raila.
It is widely believed that the “successor’’ he was talking about is Kidero. Raila’s camp also believes that Kidero is manipulating members of the council.
It is instructive that Kidero has been spending a lot of time in the Nyanza region conducting harambees and trying to build a political base to rival Raila’s. His efforts are bearing fruit, at least if the support his efforts have elicited from elected leaders, especially in southern Nyanza, which covers Migori, Kisii, Nyamira and Homa Bay counties, is anything to go by.
The leaders are split down the middle between Raila and Kidero, a development that dilutes Raila’s support and may complicate his fortunes even in Cord.
There has been talk of an agreement between Raila, Kalonzo and Wetang’ula about 2017 when the 2013 deal was done. Apparently, those in the Kalonzo camp believe that that agreement was for their man to be ticket holder.
But would Cord hold in the event that Raila somehow gives up the leadership of ODM to a new person?
According to the deal, Raila was to be a one-term president. What happens now that he did not win the prize?
Kalonzo hinted at the deal last month when he revealed that the coalition partners signed an agreement on who would vie for the presidency in 2017. His comments came amid calls for Raila to retire and allow another Cord candidate to contest the top seat in the next election.
“He has tried three times without success. There are people who have vowed never to vote for him and finally, the majority of voters today have no connection with the suffering he underwent under the hands of President Moi to bring about the Second Liberation,’’ Mr Richard Onyonka, the ODM MP for Kitutu Chache South said.
But this was dismissed by Raila’s supporters led by Suna East MP Junet Mohammed.
Within ODM, Onyonka is seen as speaking for a faction that supports Kidero.
Mr Junet Mohammed, the Suna East MP and one of Raila’s biggest supporters, in apparent reference to this said Raila has a political ideology and is not just trying to use money to win leadership.
Inside the coalition, there is fear of an internal implosion, a development its Jubilee rival will watch with glee.
In an interview last month with the Sunday Nation, Kalonzo, insisted those hoping Cord will disintegrate before the next elections were in for a rude shock as the Opposition had an elaborate plan to manage any potential fall-out. Kalonzo, however, refused to disclose details of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), arguing the time was not ripe.
“For now that is privileged information, and I would rather it remain so. What is important is unity of purpose in Cord, not details of the MoU. The coalition members must all work to achieve this unity,” he said.
Kalonzo was quick to clarify that the sensitive issue of the next presidential candidate will not be a deal-breaker. “Any of us can make a good president and any of us can be a good running mate. In the same vein, any of us can also be an excellent leader of the majority (in Parliament),” he said.
Wetang’ula, the Bungoma senator, is on record as saying Cord will conduct a joint nomination to pick its flag-bearer and he stood a good chance of being picked, while a section of leaders in Kalonzo’s Ukambani stronghold have said he risked being politically irrelevant if he failed to secure the coalition’s ticket in 2017.
Raila, who has vied for the presidency three times –– in 1997, 2007 and last year –– has left his allies and opponents guessing about his intentions for 2017.
However, the former Prime Minister and his allies have in recent months hinted he will run. Indeed, some see the zeal with which he has pushed the Okoa Kenya referendum bid as aimed at giving him a springboard to the 2017 campaign.
The referendum, should it go through all the legal phases, should be held in mid or late 2015, less than two years to the General Election.
Indeed, there are those in the Kalonzo camp who think that Raila is using the Okoa Kenya campaign to revive his presidential fortunes.
In October and again in November, the well-connected Indian Ocean Newsletter reported that Kalonzo does not appreciate Raila’s leadership on this issue, because he suspects him of already putting himself forward to run in the presidential election in 2017 at the expense of other potential candidates, beginning with himself.
The online newsletter said public appearances by Kalonzo and Raila in support of Okoa Kenya were becoming increasingly rare. Kalonzo, it said, was opting to send Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama to represent him at Okoa functions.
This inevitably led to speculation that he was laying the ground to leave Cord.
This forced him to issue a statement to the Sunday Nation from South Africa last month reaffirming his commitment to the coalition and the Okoa Kenya referendum campaign.
“I am strongly for the referendum; it is only that I have been trying to sort out a few personal issues. We are in close contact with Raila and even this morning, I spoke with him from his hotel room in Yale (university),” he said then, alluding to Mr Odinga’s US visit.
Mr Musyoka rejected claims by those who said that the split with Mr Odinga in the run-up to the 2007 General Election showed he was a self-seeker. “No one can today say I cannot sacrifice my ambition for anyone. Even before March 2013, I had sacrificed for (retired president) Mwai Kibaki,” he said.
Because of Raila’s stature, his local, and international networks and resources, it is almost impossible for Kalonzo or Wetang’ula to stop him if he is still interested in the presidency.
There are those who also think that unless something politically earth shattering happens between now and 2017, the Jubilee coalition is almost assured to win re-election.
As a result, for the likes of Wetang’ula and Kalonzo, it will be in their interest to let Raila have one last stab at the top seat and then prepare for his succession in 2022.
The issue of Raila and the presidency has become very emotional in ODM and Cord.
Last month, for example, a group of rowdy individuals violently ejected ODM executive director Magerer Lang’at from the party headquarters in Nairobi. He was alleged to have said the party was dead and that Mr Odinga should retire.
Also last month, Kitutu Chache South MP Richard Onyonka, who claimed to speak on behalf of a group of MPs allied to Mr Odinga, said the best chance for Cord to win the top seat in the next elections was for the former PM to sacrifice his bid for the presidency. Mr Odinga’s allies say those pushing these views are “moles” being used by the Jubilee government to divide the Opposition.
Picking a presidential torchbearer and candidates for other elective seats is usually the biggest test for political parties.
The challenge is more profound when it is an alliance like Cord that has many affiliate parties.
Thus it will be a very big test for the unity of the coalition given that it will have three or even more strong contenders with Mr Kidero also said to be interested.
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