By Fuad Abdirahman
Though defeated at the recent African Union Chair elections in Addis Ababa, Mr. Raila Odinga retains an undeniable relevance in modern Kenya’s politics. In years to come, he will remain the singular force that shaped Kenya’s destiny, making him one of the most consequential figures ever to stride across Kenya’s political stage.
For decades, Mr. Odinga has been both an ideologically grounded person and a flip-flopping politician. At one point, he was a fierce critic of the then President Daniel arap Moi’s authoritarian rule in the 1980s and early 90s. He endured six years of detention without trial, but in the twilight years of the Moi administration, he became a member of the Moi Cabinet, serving as Energy minister. As the 2002 General Election approached, he played a central role in dismantling President Moi’s and Kanu’s hold on power.
Given his political tenacity, he will continue to occupy the very heart of power, as he has amassed a lot of experience and mastered the art of alliance-shifting with the precision of a strategist. Election losses have not impacted much on his political interests, as evidenced in the 2018 handshake with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta.
That closing of ranks led to the failed Building Bridges Initiative. His 2022 loss to President William Ruto did not dim him either, and he ended up being in the very heart of government he had earlier claimed had rigged his election. President Ruto last year became his chief campaigner for the AU Chairman seat, which he lost to his Djibouti rival.
Nothing much has changed, though Mr. Odinga now faces perhaps the most uncertain moment of his political career. The questions many are asking are: What does the future hold for him? Will he reinvent himself yet again, perhaps as a global statesman, or does Kenya’s political landscape still have one more role for its most consequential son?
He has numerous options; one is to continue working with President Ruto, as the duo have a long history of working together. At some point, they were allied in challenging President Kibaki’s re-election in 2007. Their working together for the AU elections makes a strong case for their continued collaboration ahead of the 2027 elections.
Mr. Odinga has secured key positions for his allies in the current administration, including in the Cabinet and National Assembly. Rather than flip-flop again, as he has a propensity for doing, Mr. Odinga could also focus on an honourable exit from the political scene.
On President Ruto’s side, it is time to think about a serious partnership with Mr. Odinga, as this would be in his best interest. One way of achieving this is through the adoption of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report and pushing for the creation of the role of Prime Minister, with Odinga as the PM candidate. However, the legal obstacle to this is substantial.
To get around this challenge, the country will need to engage in a serious discussion about the Judiciary’s rigid approach to constitutional reforms, as seen in the 2021 rejection of the Building Bridges Initiative and the NADCO report.
However one looks at it, the best course for Mr. Odinga at this stage is to align with President Ruto’s administration, bearing in mind that an attempt at an elective post could add to his string of failed political ambitions.
It is also time for Mr. Odinga, now 80, to make way for fresh leadership from his base, including at the Orange Democratic Party. For decades, he has sidelined potential leaders from his base. His exit could open the door for new faces to emerge, allowing those who have long been in his shadow to take over the reins. This would create an opportunity for new leadership and political growth.
Of course, there is always the option for him to contest in another election, but there is no guarantee that he will secure a win. Another defeat, especially in a presidential race, would mark yet another setback in his political career.
– The writer is a senior researcher and political analyst at Felt Africa Group, focusing on governance and policy reforms. The views in this article are his own.
Email your news TIPS to Editor@nairobilawmonthly.com, and to advertise with us, call +254715061658 anytime of the day
