What works for DP Ruto ahead of August poll

Everyone loves a fighter. The person who stands up to great odds regardless of what the fight is about. Ahead of the 2013 election, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto turned their arraignment at the ICC into an anti-imperialist platform and won over Kenyans. It was their one trump card. 

As we head into the August 2022 General Election, Deputy President William Ruto stands tall as a fighter amongst the political bigwigs of our time. As the battle for the Presidency gets into the homestretch, leading presidential candidates are consolidating their bases and working overtime to convert the often tide-changing bloc of undecided voters. At the moment, the power of sway vests with DP Ruto; here is why.

Uhuru’s miscalculation

DP Ruto has consistently held his head high despite the betrayal of his boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, the man he went all out to support in the last two elections. Over the last two years, his key allies have been purged out of key leadership positions and targeted in a selective war on corruption. And in February, the DP was kicked out of the ruling party and has been excluded from Government. His refusal to buckle under pressure has not gone unnoticed and will serve him well.

Opposed an unpopular BBI initiative

The Building Bridges Initiative, initially camouflaged as a reformist Bill, has turned out to be nothing but the ruling elite’s attempt at rewriting history. The courts have ruled against it twice, and DP Ruto has been consistent in his opposition to the referendum Bill. Many Kenyans believe the planned changes are not for the common good of the people but meant to benefit President Kenyatta and his ally, Raila, its leading proponents. This attempt hasn’t and won’t fly with Kenyans.

Raila’s about-turn

The handshake killed Raila’s otherwise solid brand. His millions of supporters wanted nothing short of a revolution following the repeat 2017 presidential election he boycotted. That was the whole point of Raila’s swearing-in as the “people’s president” on January 30, 2018. The handshake was a painful betrayal of that cause and demobilized his support base. Ruto is capitalizing on that flop and winning hordes of Raila’s disgruntled supporters.

The big corruption reveal

Ruto has turned the war on corruption against Uhuru. People who argued that Uhuru was rich and could not be involved in corruption if he rose to power have had good reason to rethink that view. The President’s own admission that Government loses some Sh2 billion daily is one of the biggest blots to his legacy. Corruption continues unabated after the DP’s ‘ouster’ from Government, and Kenyans understand that theft of resources results from state failure, which is squarely on Uhuru. 

A burgeoning Hustler nation

Jubilee promised Kenyans, especially the youth, economic heaven. It has delivered hell. Ruto has distanced himself from the Government and resorted to using his money to help jobless youths (hustlers). This contrasts with the “dynasties” who are disconnected from the sufferings of Kenyans as they cut backroom deals to retain power and accumulate more.

Tribe apathy

Three out of Kenya’s four presidents have been Kikuyu, two of the father and son. Uhuru told Kenyans he would support Ruto to succeed him. Jomo Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki betrayed allies who backed them to get state power. Ruto will harvest handsomely from the Kikuyu hoi polloi who reject being branded as betrayers one more time.

Started early is an advantage

Ruto has been a 2022 presidential candidate for the last seven years. He backed Uhuru to inherit central votes. Other politicians have declared their intention to run, but most pose no serious challenge. Raila, whom Uhuru has publicly endorsed, is a deflated candidate whose fortunes ride on Uhuru’s goodwill and support. That, by any estimation, makes Ruto the frontrunner in the coming election.

Incumbency advantage 

Ruto is the second highest-placed insider in the current Government despite being isolated by Uhuru. He enjoys the trappings of power and the privileges of incumbency. He knows how the system works and will likely use that knowledge to great political advantage.

Undecided voters

After the handshake, a Raila presidency would be nothing but an extension of Kenyatta’s term and, thereby, an extension of ethnic Kikuyus’ long-standing political dominance over Kenya’s political system and economy. 

By confirming his alliance with Raila, Uhuru has potentially stoked widespread anger among minority members of Kenya’s more than 40 ethnic groups, whose fears that close ties between the two politicians would champion policies that entrench existing patterns of unequal resource allocation seem to have been confirmed. 

With just six months to the August election, this is the one factor that will bag the majority of the undecided voting bloc. Uhuru’s fixation with Azimio la Umoja has left many Kenyans in doubt whether he ever had their interests at heart and is an eyeopener to many that there is more than meets the eye, despite the President’s ‘Sagana revelations’, on his dalliance with Raila. 

Against the backdrop of the continued secrecy of the Uhuru-Raila dalliance, many hitherto undecided voters would rather take their chances with Ruto, now emerging as the tolerable underdog, than risk their future with an Azimio camp that is increasingly out of touch with the common man. (