Why it is Mt Kenya masses, not its leaders, that Ruto must strive to keep

A failure to keep his promises to Kenyans has seen President William Ruto lose his popularity with the masses and increase chances of an early political grave

By Ouma Ojango

The long-standing veil of invincibility, perceived or real, around President William Samoei Ruto is quickly fading. His actions, performance and general disenfranchisement of the majority of Kenyans are beginning to make it seem possible that he might break history and become Kenya’s first one-term President.

But just what is the President doing wrong? Why is the President no longer striking the right chords with his base of people with low incomes and the lower-middle class of the economy on whose backs he rode to power? He has recently re-engaged the campaign gear and gone back to car tops in meet the people tours of his political bases of Rift Valley and Mount Kenya Regions, but why are the people no longer cheering his rhetoric?

President Ruto’s critical blunders that are making his popularity with the masses dwindle in quick succession can be summarised in several perspectives. One is his punitive economic policies. Two is his brutal use of State instruments of violence against Kenyans who oppose those policies. The third is his seeming stifling of devolution and obsession with the former first family.

The President rode to power solely to uplift the poor’s economic status, evident in his campaign slogan of Bottom Up. He seized every opportunity to criticise the policies of his former boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, that seemed to negatively impact the lives of the poor. He, for example, chided President Kenyatta’s government on the rising cost of household goods and other consumables, especially maize flour and fuel.

He put up his case to the people in the most convincing manner. He argued that having grown from a poor background, he understood the pain of lacking. He promised to re-engineer a policy shift to focus on the livelihoods of the impoverished. He promised to lower the cost of maize flour and fuel immediately he, in his own words, “put down the Bible” in reference to his swearing-in ceremony. He promised to form an inclusive government that would rope in the common man.

However, when the President formed the government, hustlers hardly featured in his priorities. To the shock of his political base, it was a regurgitation of the who’s-who in the political ecosystem, from the Cabinet to top Civil Service positions to foreign missions and parastatals. It wasn’t a big deal, so long as the agenda of reducing the cost of living would be seen through.

Then came the exasperating extravagance of the Government. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s official residence consumed Sh1.5 billion to renovate. The question many asked was, what was he renovating? It remains unclear why a residence occupied formerly by his boss would need such colossal amounts to renovate. 

Budgets for hospitality in the Office of the President and other top offices suddenly shot through the roof. More, unnecessary offices that consumed a fortune were created, including an office for the wife of the Prime Cabinet Secretary and 52 slots for Chief Administrative Secretaries. This, even as those in government screamed themselves hoarse about finding the public coffers empty.

It was, however, the emergency of punitive, aggressive economic policies that ended in over-taxation of the lowly of the economy that sent shockwaves across the country. Take, for example, the impugned 16% VAT on fuel that the Government implemented in total disregard of a court order. It has been reported by fuel marketers that petrol stations are pushing low sales and smaller quantities, meaning the government may be making less from the new levy. At the same time, the masses are suffering from the ripple effect of increased commodity prices. Wouldn’t it have been a win for both government and the people had the latter lowered taxes and, therefore, prices on fuel as they had promised and benefited from economies of scale?

A raft of taxes in the Finance Act 2023 are against the poor and the lower-middle class. What is more frustrating is that the Government hasn’t so far shown any intention, leave alone a tangible plan that would invest back the taxes into the economy through development that would positively impact the people’s lives.

It is in this context that people, the majority of whom campaigned and voted for the President, have been out in the street in protest against the skyrocketing cost of living. The president’s response has been nothing less of terrifying: he unleashed state-sponsored violence on peaceful protestors, killing dozens and injuring scores. 

Raila Odinga may have called, through his Azimio political outfit, for demonstrations;
those who responded to that call are, however, not exclusively his supporters. They are Kenyans pinned down by hard economic times, including those who voted for President Ruto. The Government has also stifled funding in numerous key sectors of the economy. It is, for instance, lying far behind in school capacitation and funding under devolution.

It must be noted that Ruto has two crucial political constituencies; the Rift Valley, where he hails from, and his Deputy’s Mt. Kenya region. He cannot confidently count on any other political bloc in the country. While Governors from his Rift Valley constituency will stick with him, funds or no funds, those from the Mt. Kenya region cannot be counted on to do the same. Already there is palpable disquiet from leaders from the Mt. Kenya region. It is telling that previously visible and vocal ones like the Council of Governors Chairperson, Anne Waiguru of Kirinyaga, Nyeri’s Mutahi Kahiga and Tharaka Nithi’s Muthomi Njuki are no longer seen on the President’s trail. Until the President confirms his commitment to devolution and opens taps for money to flow into the counties, it will be difficult for governors across the country to support him.

Lastly, by allowing his Mt. Kenya stalwarts of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Cabinet Secretary for Trade Moses Kuria, Leader of Majority in the National Assembly Ichungwa Kimani, Member of Parliament for Kiharu, Ndindi Nyoro to terrorise the First Family, the President has stooped too low. It has never happened before in the history of independent Kenya. 

Ruto bastardised President Uhuru Kenyatta through the second term as his Deputy to last year’s General Election. One would have thought it would end with Ruto ascension to power. It has gotten worse. First, they targeted the First Family’s property; now they have roped in his octogenarian mother and children. This will only alienate him, generally from the international community and the larger Kenyan society, specifically from his once unwavering Mt. Kenya region.

Mt. Kenya region is the constituency that holds the key to President Ruto’s hold on power. If he loses it, it may very well all go up in smoke. Unfortunately, he is treating that historically slippery constituency casually. One by one, the lower class of that constituency is already beginning to reawaken to the reality that things are getting worse for them under President Ruto.

The ground is slowly getting shaky with the combination of the four imperatives afore. The problem with the Mt. Kenya region is that the people, not the leaders, dictate the region’s political path. Most leaders who ditched President Kenyatta’s project in the previous year’s General Election did so not because they hated the President. They did so because the ground dictated so. All those whose loyalty to remained tied to President Kenyatta lost.

President Ruto should, at all costs, including by repealing the Finance Act 2023, ensure he keeps the grip on the people, not the leaders, of his Mt. Kenya Constituency. If the people of that constituency were to shift allegiance, as is seemingly likely to happen before the next elections, the elected and appointed leaders of Mt. Kenya, including Moses Kuria, Mithika Linturi, Ndindi Nyoro, Kimani Inchungwa, just to name a few, will not be of any use to him come August 2027.