By Okwaro Oscar Plato
Kenya is a country of micro nations, each proud, distinct and unique: the resourceful Kikuyu, the studious Luhya, the indefatigable Kalenjin, the proud Maasai, the flamboyant Kamba, the exquisite coastal peoples and others. That is what we must embrace as a diverse people who must coexist for our common good and posterity.
Being a multi-ethnic state made up of 42-plus recognised tribes, the 2009 census figures break down our ethnic composition as follows: Kikuyu 17 per cent, Luhya 14 per cent, Kalenjin 13 per cent, Luo 10 per cent, Kamba 10 per cent, Kisii 6 per cent, Mijikenda 5 per cent, Meru 4 per cent, Turkana 2.5 per cent, and Maasai 2.1 per cent.
Nine per cent of the population consists of smaller groups, below 1 per cent each, and non-African groups (Arabs, Indians and Europeans), who are estimated to total about 1 per cent. This recognition of the diversity of Kenyans is enshrined in our Constitution, first in its acknowledgment of these as well as in the provisions to allow for structured regional political alliances and broad support to win the presidential ticket in a general election, which is a standard in any democracy.
Since 1963, Kenyan politics has been characterised by ethnic tensions and rivalry between tribes, escalating into the 2007/2008 post poll violence that nearly plunged the country into a civil war. Tribe is our identity. It is true that we need to get to a point where we are judged by merit and character and not by tribe, but first we must also embrace this diversity.
Negative ethnicity, nepotism and tribalism, not our ethnic identities, are our biggest undoing. This has largely been caused by inequitable distribution and control of national resources through political power. Unfortunately, ethnicity is the obvious exclusivist tendency that Kenyans resort to in their contest for state power. Though not a uniquely Kenyan habit, this has always been cited as a potential source of trouble.
There is, therefore, a need, and Kenyans need to realise this, to raise one million signatures as required under the popular initiative (Article 257) to amend Article 136 of the Constitution to provide for the election of the president through a county-based electoral system as opposed to the current one-person-one-vote system, which has been reduced to a mere census of tribal numbers.
The beauty of Kenya’s diversity is such that there is no majority tribe. There are large tribes but none makes up for more than 50 per cent of the population. For example, the largest ethnic group, the Kikuyu, is less than a fifth of the total population. In reality, therefore, Kenya has a “safety of numbers, and not a tyranny of numbers” among its ethnic groups. However, to exploit this reality, Kenya must institute a presidential electoral system where all ethnic groups, large and small, feel safe and important in the prosecution of national affairs, especially as embodied in the election of the President and his Deputy, who are symbols of national consensus and unity.
The system can move this country away from the current state of affairs where large tribes tyrannise smaller ones during elections, and where the main criteria for occupying the presidency lies n the numerical strength of the ethnic blocks backing a candidate. The system must boost the process of devolving power from Nairobi, an act designed to improve local governance and reduce marginalisation and the risk of conflict between different communities.
Such a system is only practical where the president and deputy president are not elected directly in a popular vote nationally. Instead, they are elected indirectly by popular vote on a county-by-county basis.
Americans elect their powerful president via an electoral college designed to ensure popular vote and to protect the interests of all states. The founders of the USA wanted each state to have a voice in the election of the president and, therefore, even small states have political influence nationally.
The US Constitution specifies that the president and deputy must be chosen through the votes cast by electors chosen by the states, rather than by a direct popular vote. Hence, the two are not elected directly by the voters. Instead, they are elected indirectly by “electors” who are elected by popular vote on a state-by-state basis. And a candidate can become president without having obtained the highest number of votes nationally in the sole or final round of popular voting.
The county electoral system is a block, or weighted, voting system that is designed to give more power to the counties with more votes, but which also allows for small counties to swing an election. Under this system, each county is assigned a specific number of votes that is proportional to its population, so that each county’s power is representative of its population. So, while winning the popular vote may not ensure a candidate’s victory, a candidate must gain popular support of a particular county to win the votes in that county.
There are two mechanisms that come to mind here. First, if Kenya adopted this system, it would allot counties a number of delegates equal to their population sizes. Nairobi the most populous county, would get, say ten delegates, while Turkana, could, for instance, get two. Hence, during elections, candidates would get the number of delegates based on their performance in the counties. If Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta, for example, competed for the presidency and Uhuru got majority votes in Nairobi, he would be entitled to all the 10 delegates in Nairobi. If Raila beat him in Turkana, he would get all delegates from Turkana. When it comes to the final determination of the winner, the total delegates of each candidate would be added up to give us the president.
The beauty of such a system is that candidates would not just sit pretty campaigning in their ethnic backyards and cutting deals with one or two others that would propel them to power. They would have to campaign in the whole country, since who knows, the difference in the number of delegates could be only two votes, meaning Turkana could end up being as important as Nairobi in the final determination.
The second alternative is that each county is apportioned electoral votes equal to the number of its elected Members of National Assembly, plus one elected Senator. Hence, there would be 337 electoral votes, being 290 Members of the National Assembly and 47 senators. The county electoral votes are taken on a “winner-take-all” basis. That is, all electoral votes in a county are given to the winning presidential candidate. To be elected president, one must get at least 169 votes, being 50 per cent + 1 of the electoral votes. The goal of any candidate would be to put together the right combination of counties that will give him or her 169 electoral votes.
As such, the current distribution of electoral votes per county would be as follows: Mombasa 7, Kwale 5, Kilifi 8, Tana River 4, Lamu 3, Taita Taveta 5, Garissa 7, Wajir 7, Mandera 7, Marsabit 5, Isiolo 3, Meru 10, Tharaka Nithi 4, Embu 5, Kitui 9, Machakos 9, Makueni 7, Nyandarua 6, Nyeri 7, Kirinyaga 5, Murang’a 8, Kiambu 13, Turkana 7, West Pokot 5, Samburu 4, Trans Nzoia 6, Uasin Gishu 7, Elgeyo Marakwet 5, Nandi 7, Baringo 7, Laikipia 4, Nakuru 2, Narok 7, Kajiado 6, Kericho 7, Bomet 6, Kakamega 13, Vihiga 6, Bungoma 10, Busia 8, Siaya 7, Kisumu 8, Homa Bay 9, Migori 9, Kisii 10, Nyamira 5 and Nairobi 18, to give a total of 337.
Should none of the candidates win 169 electoral votes, a run-off between the top two candidates would be conducted. Under an Electoral College system, it would be foolhardy and incredulous to think that one can run for any political office devoid of alliances borne of common interest, especially in a country as ethnically and culturally diverse as Kenya. It is time Kenyans learnt to cherish what established democracies elsewhere practice.
Email your news TIPS to Editor@nairobilawmonthly.com, and to advertise with us, call +254715061658 anytime of the day
