Developments could shake up political equation

Depending on the outcome of Deputy President William Ruto’s case at the ICC case, he has a political calculus to balance. Here are possible equations:

Maintain status quo: One, he could maintain his position in Jubilee and hope two things work in his favour – that is, Kenyans don’t become apathetic to Jubilee politics by 2022, and the Mt Kenya region defies the history of ethnic voting and backs him. For Kenya’s political landscape, this will be the least travelled road, because Uhuru has just a single vote and will find it difficult to convince his community to vote fully for Ruto. In 2012-13, some people close to President Mwai Kibaki, fearing a backlash over Kikuyu domination of the presidency, appeared to front Musalia Mudavadi but failed miserably when Mt Kenya rebuffed the deputy prime minister.

Take a leap of faith: Decamp to Opposition and pray that they (Opposition) wrestle the seat from Uhuru, and the new president agrees to rule for just a term.  Ruto can now serve as deputy president and then run for president 2022. What this means is that Uhuru will rush to Gideon Moi to fill up the gap occasioned by Ruto’s flight.

Cut his losses: Go solo in 2017 and 2022 as well. He may run away with a big fraction of the Kalenjin vote and scramble for pockets of support in Meru, Western and north eastern. If this happens, Gideon Moi, and perhaps Isaac Ruto, will take other fraction of the Kalenjin support

Play go-to guy: Lastly, he could amass so much wealth and play kingmaker in Kenyan politics.