By Silas Apollo
Exports of solar modules to Africa have been on a constant rise over the last year or so, with the latest report from Ember, an energy think tank, showing that China’s solar exports surged by a third to 114 GW in the first half of the year.
Notably, exports to Africa experienced the most significant growth, an astonishing 187% increase, signaling a growing appetite by countries in the continent for solar power.
Having suffered persistent blackouts in recent times, many African countries, Kenya included, have been ramping up their uptake of alternative power sources, with solar energy being one of the most preferred energy sources.
Ember says that the surge in solar uptake was primarily propelled by substantial rises in South Africa, where the country imported 3.4 GW, a remarkable leap from 0.6 GW in H1-2022.
According to an analysis by Johannesburg-based economist Gaylor Montmasson-Clair from The Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), a South African think-tank, US$650 million (R12 billion) worth of solar panels were imported into South Africa in the first six months of 2023.
This is particularly noteworthy considering that the value of imports in the first half of 2023 is more than double the value imported in 2022, which stood at US$295 million (R5.6 billion).
Amidst South Africa’s ongoing struggle with load shedding, private solar installations have surged, not only alleviating energy woes but also sparking a 5% surge in employment in the second quarter of 2023, according to a report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) research and reports division.
Released in August, the South Africa Economic Outlook for Q2 of 2023 highlights a growth in employment that has outpaced expectations, especially given the heightened levels of load-shedding.
According to the report, 784,000 additional jobs were created in South Africa in Q2 of 2022.
“This substantial increase in employment contrasts with South Africa’s weak economic growth… the increase is encouraging and reflects a growing resilience on the part of private businesses against the negative impacts of electricity outages,” the report says.
In Kenya, the government has announced plans to construct 36 solar-powered mini-grids in far-flung areas not properly served by the national electricity grid, according to Energy Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir.
Off-grid solar power, spearheaded by start-ups, has gained popularity in Africa recently for homes left off mainstream electricity grids.
A report by the World Bank indicates that more than 3,000 solar mini-grids have been installed in sub-Saharan Africa, up from 500 in 2010. Another 9,000 are in the pipeline, including those constructed in Kenya.
Chrichir said that the new solar mini-grids are part of a $150 million programme funded by the World Bank and will use batteries and backup generators to provide electricity independent of the leading national grids.
The World Bank estimates that solar can connect 380 million people in sub-Saharan Africa to electricity by 2030 due to the abundance of sunshine.
In South Africa, Eskom’s data reveals over 4,400 MW of rooftop solar had been installed in the country by private households and businesses as of June 2023, with a remarkable 349% surge in installations in just over a year.
It is worth noting that this is separate from the government-procured solar under the REIPPP program, estimated at 2,200 MW.
The report attributes the surge in rooftop solar adoption to high electricity costs, supply interruptions, and a growing demand for green power. Moreover, this trend is expected to continue gaining momentum in the foreseeable future as both private and public initiatives take shape.
Operation Vulindlela, a collaborative effort between the Presidency and
National Treasury aimed at expediting the implementation of structural reforms and bolstering economic recovery, is currently monitoring a pipeline of 10,000 MW in private sector energy generation projects.
This is occurring simultaneously with an anticipated surge in on-grid solar capacity, projected to increase from 110% to 420% by 2030. PwC predicts that this category, predominantly led by Independent Power Producers (IPPs), will escalate from 2,300 MW to 3,700 MW in 2025 and 5,800 MW by 2030.
The accelerating surge in private solar adoption is expected to have a further positive impact on the power supply in the country as it will enhance individual business operations. This sets the stage for a more optimistic economic growth outlook for 2024 and beyond.
“We expect the economy to grow by 1.0% next year, or as high as 1.3% under an upside scenario, the authors of the Strategy& report from PwC underscore.
The International Energy Agency expects solar power to be the largest source of electricity by 2027 and will be key to rapidly reducing emissions across the global power sector. (
— Additional Reporting by Bonface Orucho, Bird Story Agency
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