On 30 January, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) sounded an alarm that the ongoing infestation of desert locusts, mainly in Eastern Africa – Ethiopia (B1 negative), Kenya (B2 stable), Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti – is threatening the food security and livelihood of millions in the Horn of Africa, and that there is a risk that it will spread to other neighbouring countries, including Uganda (B2 stable). The locust outbreak is the worst in decades and was nurtured by unusually heavy rains in recent months.
The locust infestation is credit negative for agriculture-dependent countries, particularly Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, which have so far been most affected (the latter declaring a national emergency). Rain over the next six months could compound the crisis given the locusts’ sheer numbers and voracious appetite for important crops. The UN Humanitarian office in Geneva estimates that a small swarm of locusts can consume enough food in a single day for 35,000 people.
In such an agriculture-dependent area, destruction of a large number of crops risks material negative economic implications. In East Africa, subsistence agriculture and high reliance on unprocessed food and fresh-food markets means the infestation is particularly damaging. Agriculture contributes around one-third of GDP in East Africa and is responsible for more than 65 percent of employment in all East African countries with the exception of Kenya. Moreover, low per-capita incomes in East Africa, coupled with high income inequality and high poverty levels, make these countries vulnerable and less able to absorb shocks.
Locusts consume rangeland grasses, bananas, barley, coffee, cotton, khat, sorghum, millet and maize (all important crops for East African countries), which will weigh on agricultural output and GDP growth in the year ahead. FAO estimates that about 70,000 hectares are infested in Kenya, but destruction of crops in other areas has not yet been quantified. In Ethiopia, approximately 32,000 hectares of 82,000 hectares surveyed are infested by the desert locusts, attacking coffee and tea crops that account for approximately 30 percent of Ethiopia’s exports.
Food insecurity will be exacerbated by this locust infestation. FAO estimates that 8.5 million Ethiopians and 3.1 million Kenyans already face severe food insecurity. And, the locust infestation will test existing food storage in fragile Horn of Africa countries and add to inflationary pressures given the relatively high proportion of food in the consumer price index basket. Rising food prices from a prolonged shortage of key crops fuels the potential for social unrest across East Africa, a region where we already assess political risks as elevated and the ingredients for potential social unrest prevalent. (
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