Raila’s next best move should be a ‘Tosha’ moment

By NLM Writer

At a gathering of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya in October in Bondo, Siaya County, his home and political base, Opposition chief described Raila Odinga described his lieutenant and Ukambani kingpin Kalonzo Musyoka as a trustworthy leader. Although Raila later sought to downplay the significance of his words – perhaps to indicate that the idea of Azimio’s next presidential candidate is not his sole prerogative – there are several reasons why this is a big deal.

Raila has spent most of his adult life a politician, garnering countrywide support often bordering on the fanatical. In recent times, including in Nyanza, where he has commanded a cult-like following, he is beginning to lose his support from followers who believe he has used up all his credible chances of becoming president. The praise of his ally Kalonzo Musyoka a month ago fuelled speculation that Raila Odinga was ready to hang his political boots.

“Kalonzo has a good heart,” Raila said of Kalonzo. “He is hardworking and one you can trust. He is trustworthy and loving. Kalonzo is 10 times better than Ruto.”

Raila’s high praise – for, indeed, it is – elicited excitement about whether Raila, 78, is preparing Kalonzo to take the party’s reins in 2027 for the next presidential election. Kalonzo’s supporters were excited; most believe such an endorsement is long overdue.

At the time, Kalonzo himself believed it to be an endorsement. He said: “It will be a walk in the park in 2027. Kenyans are tired of this (Ruto’s) government.”

Kalonzo, who only contested the presidency in 2007, later served as the VP in former President Mwai Kibaki’s administration between 2008 and 2013. Raila’s statement signals his preferred successor should he decide not to contest in 2027.

Secondly, Raila may have already used up all the luck he has had politically. The former prime minister has made five unsuccessful stabs at the presidency, and there have been calls that the opposition needs fresh leadership.

Presently, according to observers, Azimio’s strategy involves Raila engaging in active politics to capitalise on the robust influence he commands across the country, which can help marshal his support behind a preferred successor with a proper, deliberate endorsement in what would be a ‘Tosha moment’ in the same way he endorsed Kibaki in 2002.

Grand political bargain

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, are the ongoing bipartisan talks between Azimio and the Kenya Kwanza government. Their biggest political outcome so far is the resolution to create and constitutionally entrench the offices of the Official Leader of the Opposition and Prime Cabinet Secretary that Musalia Mudavadi currently holds on a ‘tentative arrangement’.

Observers say that creating these two offices will change how the country approaches and crafts political coalitions, as it takes away focus from the National Assembly and dims focus on individuals in favour of geographically bigger political regions. Creating these two powerful offices would increase the stakes for political formations and ensure bigger regions and populations are represented in political negotiations – a euphemism for the shareholder concept peddled by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. The push from Azimio is to adopt a parliamentary system of government with a prime minister as head of government and the president as head of state but playing ceremonial roles, but this is unlikely to go through.

Most importantly, these two offices would significantly address the winner-take-all model of our politics where the entirety of the value of a political party of coalition vests in the presidency. A powerful, publicly-funded office of the Official Leader of Opposition would give the office-holder immense bargaining power to influence policy and a bigger say in the country’s political trajectory, taking away perceptions of ethnicity – where two large communities come together to take power and share resources.

Among other functions, the office of the Official Leader of the Opposition would participate in examining bills and presenting alternative policies, reducing the government’s unchecked power to co-opt opposition legislators to push through unpopular policies and legislation. As proposed, the office will have wide-ranging powers, including an annual address to Parliament and leeway to nominate persons to constitutional statutory commissions.

Mudavadi’s gain, Gachagua’s loss

These two offices, should the deal materialise, are likely to enhance the role that Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi, respectively, play in the next elections. With a fully funded and facilitated public office and a platform to address parliament, Raila will maintain his public profile, which is critical to maintaining his significance. The trappings of power, and assured State protection would offer Raila a springboard to advance his political cause while maintaining his public perception in the eyes of his supporters.

In the same vein, Mudavadi’s influence in government can only rise with a constitutionally entrenched office as the country’s prime minister. As the Nation reports, a strong Mudavadi and active Raila are all Ruto needs to neuter Gachagua’s sense of importance and keep him busy with consolidating a Mount Kenya region he cannot hope to command as ably as his predecessors have done. This reality is not lost on Gachagua, who is today the biggest critic of the Bomas talks – Ruto is effectively creating a secondary centre of power outside Rigathi’s office in the more controlled Mudavadi.

The president’s recent move to domicile the Ministry of Foreign Affairs signals his tacit approval of events geared towards neutralising his deputy without overtly saying so. Giving Mudavadi control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has traditionally been under the deputy president, also gives Mudavadi the space and resources to build support and networks in the global arena, giving his visibility as the government’s point person in all diplomatic matters.

Reconstituting IEBC

Finally, the dialogue team seems to have reached a consensus on the sticking issue of constituting the country’s elections team, with the resultant panel drawn from across the political divide and interest groups. Although a proper audit of the 2022 election result is off the table, the team has tentatively agreed to audit the process to ensure that the ‘how’ of arriving at the result the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC) eventually announces is as important as the ‘what’ – the result itself.

The result of these political events is a bigger public wage bill burden for taxpayers, but this is not a primary or even secondary concern for the team spearheading the talks, Ruto or Raila. The objective is what it has always been: the biggest gain for the country’s political elite regardless of the economic cost or consequences.

Back to Raila’s praise of Kalonzo, in politics, nothing is ever too small to ignore, and nothing ever happens in a vacuum. Raila’s best shot at winning the presidency was in 2022: he had the backing of the state and then incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta. The start will never align for him like that again, and he knows it. Where his ideal scenario would have been to become president, he can do the next best thing and endorse someone exceptionally well poised to inherit his sizeable political constituency – from Western, Luo-Nyanza to Northeastern to Nairobi to the Coast.

Although it is impossible to say it without seeming to condone the ethnicity factor, Kalonzo, whom the Kikuyu have long loved since 2007 when he helped Kibaki maintain the presidency, would be the Kikuyu’s choice over Ruto for no other reason than that Kalonzo is an agreeable option to Mount Kenya politically than Ruto can ever hope to be despite prevailing circumstances. Whether or not these numbers are enough to scare Ruto, the context set out earlier in this piece – the creation of the offices of the leader of the opposition and prime minister and the creation of a fund for the Senate – are set to reorganise Kenya’s political template and how we organise our political affairs.  (