The politics of zero

BY TIMAN MNYIKA

The last failed attempt to unite the populous Luhya for political ends happened slightly over a year ago. It was in the run up to the December 19, 2013 senatorial by-election in Bungoma County. Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula rode the unity crusade to victory in the mini-election.

However, many observers agreed at the time that the campaign to unite the country’s second most populous community for political reasons was headed nowhere. And it came to pass.

It was clear that Wetang’ula joined the bandwagon, then led by Cyrus Jirongo, for strategic political reasons to win his seat back. With the seat firmly back to him, he gave the initiative little thought, especially because the ultimate beneficiary was Jirongo.

Today, a similar initiative is underway, this time being pushed by Cotu Secretary-General Francis Atwoli and Jirongo’s successor in Lugari, Ayub Savula, who was elected on a UDF ticket.

But the challenges this latest bid – which seeks to incorporate the minority Teso and Sabaot communities in five counties in western Kenya – faces are even more daunting.

The key to this unity has always revolved around politicians uniting in one party under one leader.

Kenneth Marende, the former National Assembly speaker who was in Jirongo’s corner, and was also in the latest bid, has thrown a huge spanner in the works by joining the Jubilee government.

The main agenda of the unity talk, as always, is centred on perceived political and economic marginalisation of the Luhya, which can only be cured if a son of the community ascends to the presidency. However, political observers say, like others before it, the current unity bid is doomed to fail.

With the exception of 2002 when they voted overwhelmingly for Michael Wamalwa’s Ford Kenya, the Luhya have never been politically united since independence.

2002 happened, it is said, because Wamalwa, after decades in political leadership, had matured as a politician and was the most dominant in the region. Today, there are too many bulls in the kraal with almost equal strength.

Wetang’ula, Musalia Mudavadi (United Democratic Front), Eugene Wamalwa (New Ford Kenya) and Jirongo are all pretenders to the former Vice President’s throne.

Add the fact that ODM leader Raila Odinga, whose main support base is in neighbouring Nyanza, has a significant foothold in Western and the situation becomes even more complicated.

In the last  General Election, for example, Ford Kenya, New Ford Kenya, UDF and ODM all won votes and seats in the region.

Compare this with central Kenya which was dominated by The National Alliance, Rift Valley United Republican Party, Ukambani’s Wiper and Nyanza’s ODM and the futility of the current bid begins to take shape. None of the leaders of Luhya factions wants to be seen to be playing second fiddle.

“Politics is a resource and we must harness it to ensure we achieve meaningful development. We should rise beyond partisan politics to give our people good representation,” Marende said at one of the unity rallies in 2013.

While leaders from other communities in the country were united, he added, the Luhya continue to be used by external forces to fight each other, which has led to the community being short-changed in the sharing of the national cake, adding that the Luhya only have one  position in the current cabinet – the Environment docket held by Prof Judi Wakhungu.

“We have no representation in senior political positions in the country. It’s time we unite and wake up so that we redeem our rightful place,” Marende had further said.

To address past criticism that the initiatives sought to marginalise the minority Teso and Sabaot in the region, the latest bid includes them and has been dubbed Lutesa (Luhya, Teso and Sabaot). Central Organisation of Trade Unions (Cotu) boss Francis Atwoli, a non-politician, has been tasked with steering the agenda.

Officially, the objective is to consolidate western Kenya to improve its chances of producing a president. However, there are suspicions of a hidden agenda which are likely to kill the effort even before it takes off.

Lugari MP Ayub Savula, who is deeply involved in the process, invited MPs to a meeting at the Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega on December 22 last year to give proposals to enable them to produce a presidential candidate for 2017.

Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, Wamalwa and Jirongo –  seen as the big hitters among the community and whose unity is crucial to the region’s political fortunes – were all invited to the meeting.

Savula said the leaders would be paraded at Bukhungu and asked to decide who the region’s flagbearer in the 2017 elections would be.

Atwoli said he harboured no political ambition, but was prepared to midwife unity among the leaders. “Our work will be to endorse the person fronted by the rest. The Luhya community is united but lacks focused leadership,” Mr Atwoli was quoted as saying in the Daily Nation.

But by the time the meeting arrived, the agenda had changed, and so had the venue – from Bukhungu to the Golf Hotel. The meeting, it was now said, will not endorse any presidential candidate for 2017.

Instead, Bungoma County Woman Representative Reginald Wanyonyi, one of the organisers said, it was to be used to launch a massive voter registration drive in the five counties – Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia – which are dominated by the Luhya community.

“We shall use the meeting to formulate a strategy to ensure that we register six million voters in the region and from the diaspora ahead of 2017,” Ms Wanyonyi had said.

“We shall be advising people on whom to vote for before the 2017 General Elections,” Mr Savula had added.

It is not known what caused the change but, of course, it was not practical for the convenors to just parade the leaders at the stadium and ask them to select one to gun for the presidency.

But as expected, things did not go as hoped. All the key leaders invited failed to show up.  Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, Wamalwa and Jirongo gave the meeting wide berth.

Why?

Some said Savula, a well-known political and business wheeler dealer, was not genuine in his efforts to unite the leaders.

The first term MP was viewed by as ‘’too junior’’ to “summon elders for a cause”.

But the biggest problem was suspicions that he was doing the bidding of a Jubilee politician who bankrolled the meeting. 

The fact that the agenda had shifted somewhere along the way from a Luhya candidate to “we shall tell you who to vote for” also raised brows.

The common belief is that Deputy President William Ruto was the big man behind the initiative. Jirongo alluded to this in his reaction to the unity bid when he said:

“What we are opposed to is for people to allow political brokers to hijack the process in the guise of uniting communities in western in their bid to produce a single presidential candidate in 2017’’.

Former Housing Minister Soita Shitanda was in concurrence, saying similar efforts had floundered due to disagreements fuelled by suspicions and mistrust among leaders.

“What communities in western lack is a selfless leader who is ready to use his resources to rally communities in the region behind him and vote as a bloc,” Shitanda said.

Some 16 MPs – who included Alfred Sambu (Webuye East), John Sakwa (Nambale), Charles Gimose (Hamisi), David Wekesa (Saboti), Paul Otuoma (Funyula), Mary Emaase (Teso South), Bungoma Woman Representative Reginalda Wanyonyi and her Trans-Nzoia counterpart Janet Nangabo – and other leaders attended the meeting.

 

With the exception of Otuoma, the common denominator was that they were all linked to UDF, New Ford Kenya and URP, which are allies of Jubilee. Some attributed Otuoma’s presence to the fact that in the lead up to the meeting, he had fallen out with his ODM party leadership over national elections. He has since mended fences with the party.

Sambu read out the resolutions dubbed “The Kakamega Declaration” in which the MPs agreed to lead voter registration in their respective constituencies.

Through his press secretary, Mr Mudavadi, said he supported the unity call and urged western communities to prepare for the 2017 contest by registering to vote in large numbers.

Mr Jirongo has been pushing his own unity crusade which has not been heard of again since December 2013 when it was initiated. His aim is to have all leaders in the region united in one party, probably one in which he plays a major role. Indeed, he has been calling on Cord politicians from the region to leave the alliance so they can strengthen one party ahead of the elections.

Says Jirongo: “You cannot claim to be seeking leadership of the country yet you are escorting a fellow suitor who is also eyeing the same bride.”

Speaking at the forum last year, Otuoma said time had come for leaders in the region to unite irrespective of their party affiliations and pull in one direction.

Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, another senior politician who skipped the meeting, said the idea of uniting the communities was good but cautioned that it should not be done in hurry. “My advice to my colleagues is that let them match what they say with action since the task ahead is enormous and this is not something you can rush and succeed,” he said.

A house divided

The loss of a county seat in Trans Nzoia by the Ford parties complicated matters. The Sabaot and the Teso, minorities in the five counties are meant to be part of the latest unity drive. However, the victory of a Sabaot candidate in Matumbei Ward, who took advantage of the divided Luhya vote, led to the kind of emotions that make the unity extremely difficult.

URP’s Philip Sakong won the seat with 2,882 votes; New Ford-Kenya’s Judith Mutonyi was second with 2,320 while Ford-Kenya’s Bonface Sifuna was third with 1,564 votes.

New Ford-Kenya is the majority party in the assembly while URP is the minority. But with this result, New Ford-K will lose its majority if the Jubilee parties unite.

It is the division among the Luhya, represented by Ford Kenya and New Ford Kenya that allowed the seat previously occupied by the former to go to URP.

But the bigger question is how the Luhya can unite with the Sabaot and Teso when they are not united themselves. In addition, if they are seeking unity with the minorities, why would the loss of a mere ward seat cause so much commotion?

Many see the answer in the big picture at the national level. It is this kind of disunity that is reflected at the national level which allows other groups, to divide the Luhya and make them politically weak.

In the aftermath of the Matumbei debacle, Khalwale and other leaders called for a truce between Ford-Kenya and New Ford-Kenya. “We must remain united and fulfil our dream of consolidating our votes,” he said.

 Wetang’ula extended an olive branch to New-Ford Kenya leaders. “It is evident that we cannot make it separately. I call on my New Ford-Kenya brothers and sisters to come back home,” he said.

In their turn, New-Ford Kenya leaders said they were not opposed to unity calls but demanded that their leader Eugene Wamalwa be respected, with Saboti MP David Wafula asserting that the unity drive would remain elusive if “some leaders purport to be the community spokesmen while undermining others”. “Unity cannot be achieved if those leaders continue to belittle others and brand them traitors,” Wafula said.

This talk sounds familiar.

It is obvious that no lessons have been learnt and after the recriminations and half hearted offers of unity, it will be back to the usual business of petty selfish interests.

Marende, who was behind a similar unity bid last year, has been making news of his own elsewhere. Two developments in his career in recent months have been significant and may help explain some of the renewed crusade for Luhya unity and its real hidden beneficiaries.

First, President Uhuru Kenyatta appointed him to lead peace talks on war-torn Central African Republic under the auspices of the African Union, where he will be assisted by Lieutenant-General (retired) Njuki Mwaniki.

Secondly, he joined the board of directors of the state-owned Kenya Power and was elected chairman. The energy sector in Kenya, from KenGen to Kenya Power, is dominated by the URP wing of Jubilee.

Before these developments, there had been talk that Marende was in the inside lane in the race for the position of Chief Justice. The term of its current occupant, Dr Willy Mutunga expires next year. Marende’s new assignments will certainly ruffle feathers within the opposition Cord, where he is a member, and bid for unity.

At some point ahead of the bungled ODM elections, Marende was being touted as the possible replacement of then party chairman Henry Kosgey, an offer he declined before joining Jirongo in a loud campaign for Luhya unity, leading some to say he might be a possible presidential candidate from the region.

Interesting developments

Analysts say Marende’s appointment is part of a strategy adopted by Jubilee to keep raiding opposition strongholds, with the intent of winning support ahead of the 2017 elections.

“Jubilee has been keen on getting strong people from Cord, although I expected Marende’s appointment to government to come earlier. Given reports that they were grooming him to become the next Chief Justice, this new role is rather obscure. The weight is not in the appointment; they are just sending a signal that ‘he now belongs to our camp’,” Prof Fredrick Wanyama, Director of the School of Development and Strategic Studies at Maseno University, was quoted as saying in the Sunday Nation.

 Talk has also been rife that Mudavadi and Wamalwa are within Jubilee’s radar for state appointments.

 

And so when their key lieutenants are the ones now spearheading the Luhya unity talks, it doesn’t require much deducing that the other factions in the region, principally those associated with Cord and Jirongo, will not buy into the project.