A classified Pentagon document reveals that the United States is getting ready to respond to an increasing danger of a combined nuclear assault by China, Russia, and North Korea.
The New York Times reports that this past March, US President Joe Biden approved a major update for the US nuclear defense strategy focusing on a fast-growing nuclear China and the threat of a Chinese, Russian, and North Korean nuclear threat.
A Pentagon report last October revealed that within three years, China’s nuclear arsenal increased by more than double and is projected to reach 1,500 warheads by 2035, rivaling the US and Russian arsenal.
According to defense experts, it is a strategic move by Xi that should not be underestimated by the US.
“As US-China relations deteriorate and China embarks on a large-scale build-up of its nuclear forces, the security risks are rising,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie China Research Centre, in a recent paper on China’s nuclear policy.
The White House has not publicly announced the revised strategy, known as Nuclear Employment Guidance. Updated every four years, it exists only in paper form and is available to only a small group of national security officials and to the top commanders inside the Pentagon. There are no electronic versions.
The new focus on China was couched in public remarks by top administration officials. The new strategy is the first to examine whether the US is ready for parallel or consecutive nuclear crises, according to Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation.
“The new strategy places much greater emphasis on the need to deter Russia, the PRC, and North Korea simultaneously,” Vaddi said.
Vipin Narang, a professor of nuclear security at MIT, noted that the president had “recently issued updated nuclear weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.”
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He said the guidance “particularly focused on the significant increase in size and diversity” of China’s nuclear arsenal.
“It is our responsibility to see the world as it is, not as we hoped or wished it would be,” he warned, citing the “real possibility of collaboration and even collusion between our nuclear-armed adversaries.”
According to Mallory Stewart, the State Department’s assistant secretary for arms control, deterrence, and stability, Beijing was “actively preventing” a set of discussions aimed at improving nuclear safety, The New York Times reported.
She said that China “seems to be taking a page out of Russia’s playbook. Until we address tensions and challenges in our bilateral relationship, they will choose not to continue our arms control, risk reduction, and nonproliferation conversations.”
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Vladimir Putin has issued repeated threats of using nuclear weapons, further complicating the global security landscape.
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