Food insecurity set to grow as Russia-Ukraine conflict continues – experts
BY ANTONY MUTUNGA
The fundamentals of the recent trade wars between the United States of America and China show that the world is connected in more ways than one. The current Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in the last days of February is also raising fears – its effects are being felt not just in Kenya, but also in Africa.
Ever since the invasion began, vulnerable African citizens who have been caught on the ground in the eastern European nations have faced discrimination and racism as they tried to flee the countries.
From students to business people, Africans were abandoned at border crossings while also being denied access to not only transport services but also accommodation. This is greatly alarming given that almost 20% of foreign students in Ukraine are from African countries.
According to Ukraine’s education ministry, Morocco, Nigeria and Egypt are among the top 10 countries with foreign students in Ukraine, together supplying over 16,000 students.
A more growing concern resulting from the conflict has been how it has affected the food security in country. With recovery just in its early stages after the impact of the pandemic, many African countries are staring at a bleak future thanks to dwindling food imports.
Africa imported about 85% of its food from outside the continent between 2016 and 2018 amounting to Sh4.05trillion ($35bn) and expected to reach Sh12.7trillion ($110bn) by 2025 as per data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
As a result, Africa has been hit by the soaring food prices being felt all over the world. With Russia facing economic sanctions by supporters of Ukraine in the conflict and the global supply chain being disrupted, global commodity prices have surged for a number of food imports especially wheat. The two parties in conflict are among the leading exporters of wheat, maize, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil.
Russia exported over 18% of the total wheat exported across the world in 2019 with Ukraine coming in at 5th position, exporting about 7% of the total. The current conflict between the two countries have seen exports decrease while prices for wheat have soared greatly affecting the ability of some African countries to properly feed their growing populations.
According to the Impact on Trade and Development of the War in Ukraine 2022 report by UNCTAD, in 2018 all through to 2020, Africa imported Sh428.1 bn ($3.7bn) in wheat (which is 32% of total African wheat imports) from the Russian Federation and another Sh162 bn ($1.4bn) from Ukraine (12% of total African wheat imports).
Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Benin, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Burkina Faso are among the countries to be heavily affected given the fact that they rely much on wheat from the two countries according to UNCTAD. Countries such as South Africa, Eretria and Cape Verde were, however, did not get a thorough beating – less than 50% of their wheat come from Russian and Ukraine.
The situation will continue to worsen for countries such as Madagascar, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad and Burkina Faso that are facing famine and have been identified as hunger hotspots by the United Nations. Furthermore, with Russia being one of the world’s biggest exporters of fertilizer, African countries that rely on agriculture, will be forced to enhance their reserves – rising prices in fertilizers will obviously lead to high cost of food.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a disaster for African countries, especially due to their growing agriculture economies. With the conflict having no end in sight, Africa has an opportunity to minimize its reliance on food imports. This is the time to invest on adequate infrastructure, production and logistics to fill the gap occupied by food imports.
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