Resurgent tourism sector to ‘keep going’ in 2023

By Antony Mutunga

Since 2020 Kenya’s tourism sector has been recovering after the pandemic caused significant losses due to the COVID-19 restrictions. In 2020, the total revenue from tourism stood at Sh98.68 billion ($781 million), a decrease from the Sh 176.68 billion ($1.4 billion) recorded in 2019, according to data from the Kenya Tourism Federation. 

According to the Kenya Annual Tourism Sector Performance Report 2022 by the Tourism Research Institute (TRI), the revenue from the tourism sector has continued to increase. Revenue from the industry surpassed $2 billion last year despite still being below pre-pandemic levels. From data on the report, revenue increased by 83% from Sh 146.51 billion in 2021 to Sh 268.09 billion in 2022 as international tourist arrivals increased by 70.45% from 870,465 in 2021 to stand at 1,483,752 with December 2022 recording the highest number of arrivals at 160,556. 

Peninah Malonza, the Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife, and Heritage, says the tourist arrivals represent a 72.4% recovery from the numbers in 2019, which remains above the global average recovery rate of 63%. A majority of the arrivals were from the United States, representing 16% of the total arrivals (209,360), followed by arrivals from Uganda (151,121), the United Kingdom (131,526), Tanzania (123,836), and India (83,106), respectively.

Despite accounting for the most arrivals in 2022, the United States numbers in 2022 were still playing catch up to the numbers recorded in 2019, which stood at 245,437. Even though there was an increase of arrivals from the country by 52.84% compared to the 136,981 arrivals it yielded in 2021, its year-on-year recovery was low compared to countries such as Australia, Italy, and the UK.   

Australia recorded the best year-on-year recovery rate as it was the most improved source market country. The arriving visitors from the country grew by 253.41%, increasing from 3,376 in 2021 to 11,931 in 2022. Italy and the UK followed as their arrivals grew by 156.42% and 146.93%, respectively.

According to African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2022 and TRI, the number of arrivals is forecast to increase to 2.35 million in 2023 as the fourth quarter of 2023 is projected to have the highest number at 727,507. Earnings from the industry are projected to increase as well and stand at Sh425.38 billion in the 12 months to December. By 2027, the government projects that the number of arrivals will reach 2.99 million, with revenue from the sector increasing to Sh541.72 billion.

To help the sector grow, CS Malonza believes there is a need to keep promoting regional tourism, seeing that 641,975 tourists were from within Africa. To increase regional tourism, the Kenyan government has started piloting for the Single Africa Air Transport Market (SAATM), which aims to create a single market for air transport in Africa. Furthermore, the government is also promoting diversification in developing niche products such as cruise tourism, adventure tourism, culture, and sports tourism.

Only in doing so will the tourism sector, one of the primary sources of foreign currency, be able to increase its contribution towards Kenya’s economic growth. The sector is responsible for 5.5% of the country’s formal employment, accounting for 10.4% of Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP).  (