Strange as it may sound, it is confounding that the pea-sized Israel has been firing missiles over a distance of more 1,700 kilometres to hit targets in the giant-sized Iran, which is three borders away.
The cause of the conflict sounds complex, but its effects will be felt across the globe. In Kenya, many citizens work in both countries, and their fortunes will be hit hard by the conflict, which had claimed over 80 lives by Monday.
The problem with war is that it has no formula and once it starts, there is no telling when it will end and who will be the casualties. However, the risk of third parties suffering as collateral damage remains real and it is likely to include families in rural Kenya, who depend on their sons and daughters in the Diaspora for sustenance.
Matters are likely to get out of hand if the US decides to take sides in the conflict, which will definitely create more turmoil in the Middle East. Already, Yemen has indicated that it will fight in Iran’s corner, meaning that countries like Jordan, Syria and Iraq will be caught in the crossfire.
All these countries host a sizeable number of Kenyans, who regularly send money to their loved ones back home. Should the war escalate, as it most likely will, they will become unwitting victims of circumstances they had nothing to do with.
Besides the Middle East, it will be important to keep a keen eye on America, which appears to be hurtling towards a spiral of violence instigated by President Donald Trump’s decision to deport immigrants, including those in the US legally.
The decision has sparked protests in various States across the US and is likely to get worse as people resist police and immigration officials attempts to kick them out and cut them off from their sources of sustenance.
Already, President Trump has deployed the military — itself a major escalation — to quell violence in cities where protests have gone out of hand. Whereas the US has traditionally been the leading source of dollar remittances to Kenya, the Middle East is now the fastest rising as more Kenyans seek jobs there.
What that means is that any form of violence or prolonged conflict in either or both regions is bound to have far-reaching ramifications for Kenyan families. Many will be starved of the inflows. The safety of their kin will also become a major source of worry.
There is also a risk that some could be conscripted to take part in the fighting, thus putting their lives directly on the line. Unfortunately, there is nothing that Kenya can do to stop the slide into anarchy but it can use its voice, frail as it may be on the global stage, to call for dialogue and easing of tensions.
This is one option available to it if it is to fulfil its obligation of ensuring the personal safety and material security of its citizens in these countries. It should also ramp up registration of its citizens to ensure they are constantly accounted for and can be evacuated if need arises.
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